Poverty in Africa is predominantly rural. Of all Africans who are poor, nearly two-thirds live in rural areas. For the foreseeable future therefore, reducing poverty in Africa will depend largely on stimulating rural growth. The most powerful engine of rural growth is agricultural growth, because agriculture has important forward and backward linkages to the local economy on both the production and the consumption sides.

A powerful driver of agricultural growth is the development of commercial agriculture. The global experience suggests that there are a number of pathways along which commercial agriculture can develop. Successful models range from highly diversified systems made up of smallholders who are deeply involved in commercial production to more specialized systems made up of large-scale mechanized farmers who produce exclusively for the market.

During the past 30 years, the international competitiveness of many traditional African export crops has eroded significantly. Yet over the same period, two landlocked agricultural regions in the developing world have developed at a rapid pace and conquered important world markets:
(1) the Northeast Region of Thailand, and (2) the Cerrado region of Brazil. The challenges faced by these two regions were somewhat different. The Northeast of Thailand is characterized by relatively abundant but highly unreliable rainfall, combined with poor soils and a high population density. The Cerrado in contrast is characterized by its remoteness, problematic soils prone to acidification and toxicities, as well as low population density.

Defying all predictions, both regions managed to overcome widespread pessimism about their economic development potential to become world-class exporters. The paths along which commercial agriculture developed were very different in the two regions, however. In Northeast Thailand, where smallholder production systems dominate, export success was led by cassava chips, soybeans, and sugar. In the Cerrado, where large-scale mechanized production systems dominate, Brazil became a world export leader in soybeans, sugar, and cotton.

Perceptions similar to the ones that fueled pessimism 30 years ago in Thailand and Brazil are fueling pessimism in Africa today. Yet the success achieved by Thailand and Brazil suggests that the pessimism expressed today about Africa’s commercial agriculture development prospects may be exaggerated. A major study carried out by FAO in 2001 identified the vast Guinea savannah zone, which is currently dominated by cereals-root crops mixed farming systems, as one of the zones in Africa with the highest potential for development. While other zones in Africa also have significant development potential, none has been as little developed relative to its potential.

The Guinea savannah shares a number of similarities with the Northeast Region of Thailand and the Brazilian Cerrado, suggesting that there may be important opportunities for learning from the Thai and Brazilian experiences and building on their technological advances. At the same time, it is important to retain a sense of perspective. While the Cerrado in Brazil and the Northeast Region of Thailand share important agro-climatic features with the Guinea savannah of Africa, significant differences exist in terms of history, culture, social systems, political structures, and institutions.

These differences make it unlikely that any development model, however successful, can be transferred directly from one country to another. Still, by carefully examining successful experiences such as those realized in Thailand and Brazil and drawing lessons that may have applicability elsewhere, it may be possible to dispel the profound pessimism that currently pervades so much thinking about African agriculture and generate insights that can help in the design of policies, programs, and supporting investments needed to stimulate the emergence of successful commercial agriculture in Africa.

The principal objective of the study is to explore the feasibility of restoring international agricultural competitiveness and growth in Africa through the identification of key products, production systems, and marketing strategies that could underpin a rapid development of competitive commercial agriculture in three case study countries: Mozambique, Nigeria, and Zambia.

In these countries as elsewhere, the feasibility of restoring agricultural competitiveness will depend on a number of factors, including the technical performance of agricultural commodity chains (comprising production, transformation, transportation, storage, and exchange activities); supply and demand conditions in domestic, regional, and global markets; and the appropriateness of the institutional and policy environment.

By identifying commodity chains and production systems that have potential to compete effectively in an increasingly globalized economy, the CCAA study will help inform the design of integrated programs of policy reforms, institutional changes, and supporting investments needed to promote the emergence of a successful commercial agriculture in the three African case study countries.

Consistent with the strategy of drawing lessons from the past and assessing their potential relevance for the future, the CCAA study includes components that are backward-looking and components that are forward-looking. The backward-looking components include detailed analyses of the Thailand and Brazil “success stories,” as well as a comprehensive review of the successes and failures that have resulted from past attempts to introduce commercial agriculture in Africa. The forward-looking components include a careful analysis of projected global supply and demand trends for seven internationally traded commodities of importance to the Guinea savannah: cassava, cotton, maize, soybeans, rice, sugar, and cattle.

In addition, detailed competitiveness case studies have been carried out in the three African case study countries (Mozambique, Nigeria, and Zambia). The objectives of the competitiveness case studies are to assess the current competitiveness of each of the three African countries in producing one or more of the seven key commodities (plus possibly additional commodities of local interest), to identify constraints that may be inhibiting competitiveness, and to identify opportunities where policy reforms, institutional changes, and/or supporting investments can improve competitiveness in future. Finally, detailed analyses have been done for the three African case study countries to asses the potential environmental and social impacts—positive and negative—that could result in future from the pursuit of agricultural commercialization strategies.

The CCAA study is being led by a core team that includes members of the Agriculture and Rural Development Unit (AFTAR) of the Sustainable Development Network (SDN) in the Africa Region Vice Presidency of the World Bank, as well as staff from the Investment Centre ( TCI) of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), through its Southern and Eastern Africa Service (TCIS). The CCAA core team is being assisted by an extended team of local consultants, university-affiliated researchers, and FAO technical staff (see list below).

Independent consultants

Hans Binswanger
Pretoria, South Africa

John Keyser
Lusaka, Zambia

University-affiliated researchers

Colin Poulton (Team Leader)
School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, United Kingdom

Pasquale De Muro (Team Leader)
Roma Tre University, Rome, Italy

Benchaphun Ekasingh (Team Leader)
Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand

Geraldo Barros (Team Leader)
University of Sao Paolo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Aderibigbe Olomola (Team Leader)
Nigeria Institute of Social and Economic Research, Ibadan, Nigeria

John Staatz
Michigan State University , East Lansing, Michigan, USA

FAO technical staff

Turi Fileccia (Focal Point)
Southern and Eastern Africa Service, TCIS, FAO

Merritt Cluff (Team Leader)
Trade and Markets Division, FAO

Funding

The CCAA study is being supported with funding from the World Bank and the Investment Centre of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Most of the background studies have been supported through trust funds generously provided by the Government of Italy Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

For additional information about the CCAA study, please contact:
Michael Morris
(Task Team Leader, World Bank)
mmorris3@worldbank.org

• Description of Methodology and Presentation of Templates for Value Chain Analysis; John C. Keyser, Consultant

For additional information about the CCAA study, please contact:

Michael Morris
(Task Team Leader, World Bank)
mmorris3@worldbank.org