Potential Impact of HIV/AIDS Interventions on the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Africa

The Potential Impact of HIV/AIDS Interventions on
the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Africa:
A Simulation Exercise for the World Bank
Presentations by John Stover and Lori Bollinger

Although some progress has been made against the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa, HIV prevalence remains high. This trend results from a large number of new infections occurring each year and the wider availability of antiretroviral treatment (ART), which results in longer lives for those currently HIV positive.

The World Bank developed its initial Multi-Country AIDS Program (MAP) in 1999, their program to reduce the impact and future path of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Since that time, the landscape surrounding the epidemic has changed dramatically: some countries have successfully reduced HIV incidence, resulting in valuable lessons learned about effective interventions, and more funding has become available through a wider variety of sources, which would allow for higher coverage of these effective interventions.

Given this new information, the World Bank has decided to update its approach regarding the HIV/AIDS epidemic, and write a new strategy plan, Agenda for Action 2007-2011.

• What is the appropriate level and type of funding for different epidemic profiles in sub-Saharan Africa?
• Which interventions would have the most impact on the HIV/AIDS epidemic?
• What is the impact of increased availability of ART?
• What is the impact of various specific prevention interventions (e.g., condom distribution, STI treatment, programs to prevent mother-to-child transmission)?
• What would be realistic and compelling goals for 2007-2011?

PowerPoint presentation adapted for the web, including audio and a few video clips.

Full streaming video.

Original PowerPoint file.

Full text of paper in PDF format.