| April 7, 2004 – Rwanda is commemorating the tenth anniversary of the 1994 genocide that had left the country in turmoil. During the nineties , all poverty and social indicators dropped – and the country's prospects of reaching the Millennium Development Goals (including cutting poverty in half by 2015) are very slim. Rwanda's story is one of a fall into an abyss followed by a progressive rebound. Between April and June 1994, 800 000 people were killed in a programmed genocide. GDP fell by 50 percent, with devastating consequences for the country’s development prospects. But stability was restored after a new government took over in July 1994 and a program of economic reform was launched with the support of the Bank. Although the scars remain deep, there was significant progress towards national reconciliation with the return of refugees in 1997, their peaceful reintegration, and the holding of democratic elections in 2003. On the economic front, the country registered a very high level of growth in the immediate aftermath of the conflict, before stabilizing it at a steady 6 to 7 percent a year. Still, it took until 2002 to reach again the GDP of 1992 – and it may take until 2020 to reach the level of income per capita it had in 1990. Lessons from experience The last years, however, have brought renewed hope. Government officials, private sector, and civil society activists share remarkably consistent views which coincide with the perspectives by Bank staff as well as the findings of Bank research. Three main messages have emerged: - “The Bank has a critical role to play in such fragile countries, and our efforts can make the difference between peace and war”, said Pamela Cox, Director of Operations and Strategy in the Africa Region.
Several Rwandan stakeholders observed that, “The Bank re-engaged in our country not even a month after the genocide and within weeks money started to flow. There are times when it seemed like things could go either way – to peace or to war. At that time, having a partner re-engage has a disproportionate impact.”
- Second, and as Bank research demonstrated, exceptional levels of financial assistance are needed to stabilize the situation. About half of the countries emerging from a conflict return to war within five years. But aid, supporting pro-growth policies and paying particular attention to social stability, can make a difference.
Still, restoring peace and healing trauma is a long endeavor and the exceptional levels of external assistance need to be sustained over a long period to have a lasting impact.
“It will take our economy another 15 years to get back to where we were before the genocide. This is no normal situation, and standard approaches cannot suffice,” said Rwandan Minister of Finance Donald Kaberuka. He added that “We count on our partners to accompany us all the way, until we are back on our feet. Look at the time it took even the rich Western Europe after World War II – we are deploying extraordinary efforts, but it will take time to heal the terrible experience of genocide.”
- The Bank needs to focus on results and be pragmatic in situations that are characterized by their complexity and volatility. “Results, results, results,” said Emmanuel Mbi, Country Director for Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Republic of Congo (Brazzaville). “To get there, we need to be flexible in the design of operations. We need to provide the type of policy advice which can translate into actual policy changes on the ground and in the short-term. At the end, the focus on results is a way to look at things and always ask ourselves: what difference will it make for the poor, for the country and it’s prospects and when will it actually materialize ?”
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