• As a result of the earthquake and tsunami, Japan’s real GDP growth will slow, but the slowdown will likely be temporary. Growth should start picking up after mid-2011 as reconstruction efforts get underway.
  
  
• While there are uncertainties such as the situation with nuclear reactors, Japan’s past experience suggests an accelerated reconstruction effort. The short term impact on the economies of developing East Asia is likely to be limited. In terms of impact on trade, disruption to production networks, especially in automotive and electronics industries, could continue to pose problems.
  
  
• Real GDP growth in East Asia has been moderating after a sharp rebound from the global crisis.
  
  
• Inflation has become the key short-run challenge for the authorities in the region, complicated by a surge in portfolio capital inflows and rapidly increasing food and commodity prices that hit low-income households disproportionately.
  
  
• For many middle-income countries in East Asia, lowering inflation presents difficult policy choices.
  
  
• The sharp increase in commodity prices portends increased volatility for the foreseeable future.
  
  
• Over the medium-term, East Asia has the potential to sustain rapid increases in living standards even as the global economy enters a more challenging phase.
  
  
• China, today the world’s second largest economy and its leading exporter and manufacturer, will remain a powerful source of external demand for East Asian producers in the foreseeable future.
  
  
• But even as developing East Asia continues to grow rapidly, rising inequality is a matter for concern and could pose a challenge to future social stability.
  
  
• As much as one-third of per-capita growth in East Asia over the last half a century was due to the favorable demographic dividend.
  
  
• No country has grown to middle income without industrializing and urbanizing.
  
  
• The risks of climate change and natural disasters complicate East Asia’s quest for continuous rapid growth.

Download the supplemental piece: The Recent Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan: Implications for East Asia (72kb pdf)

Download the Executive Summary (100kb pdf)

Download the Full Report (4.18mb pdf)

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Part I. Securing the Recovery, Lowering Inflation

• Recovery firmly on track (271kb pdf)
  
  
• Fighting inflation has become a key short-term priority (212kb pdf)

Part II. Shaping The Future: Sustaining Inclusive Growth

• The changing global environment and the rise of East Asia (200kb pdf)
  
  
• Regional integration and the role of China for regional prosperity (178kb pdf)
  
  
• How will ageing affect East Asia’s growth? (139kb pdf)
  
  
• Rising inequality with high growth and falling poverty (200kb pdf)
  
  
• Innovation for stronger productivity growth (252kb pdf)
  
  
• Energy security, environmental sustainability, and climate change (193kb pdf)

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• All Countries (2.92mb pdf)
• Cambodia (315kb pdf)
• China (323kb pdf)
• Fiji (315kb pdf)
• Indonesia (325kb pdf)
• Lao PDR (316kb pdf)
• Malaysia (318kb pdf)
• Mongolia (325kb pdf)
• Papua New Guinea (320kb pdf)
• Philippines (328kb pdf)
• Small Pacific Islands (103kb pdf)
• Solomon Islands (315kb pdf)
• Thailand (316kb pdf)
• Timor-Leste (296kb pdf)
• Vietnam (326kb pdf)

Key Country Indicators: 153kb pdf | 334kb xls

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Contacts:

In Singapore:
Chisako Fukuda
+65 85764533
Cfukuda@worldbank.org

In Washington, DC:
Mohamad Al-Arief
+1 (202) 458-5964
Malarief@worldbank.org