Population Growth and its Implications in Timor-Leste

High maternal mortality is partly a result of one of the highest fertility levels in the world, at 6.9 to 8.3 children per woman. High fertility is generally associated with low life expectancy, particularly for women, as well as with high infant mortality. A baby born less than 2 years after the previous one is almost four times as likely to die in infancy as one born 4 or more years later.

Demographic projections, calculated for this report, indicate that the Timorese population should increase by one-third by 2015 from its initial 2005 value, by four-fifths by 2025, and triple by 2050.(These results are similar to those in earlier projections from the National Statistics Directorate.) In an alternative rapid growth scenario, the population could quadruple by 2050. In the medium scenario, annual population growth rates start at 3.3 percent and fall slowly to 2.7 percent between 2005 and 2025. This will lead Timor-Leste to equal Indonesia's current population density by 2025. The population will age, but only slightly, with 40 percent still younger than age 15 by 2025.

Some social sectors will be especially affected by rapid population growth. The urban population, now about one-quarter of the total, is growing much faster than the rural population. Urban growth is 4.7 percent a year and will decline only to 4.4 percent by 2025, by which time the urban population will be 2.5 times its present size. Beyond 2025, the urban population could expand even more dramatically. The rural population will grow more slowly, but will still increase 50 percent by 2025.

The population of secondary school age children is expected to increase 90 percent by 2025, and that of primary school age children will probably increase by 70 percent. To enroll all children of primary school age, students aged 7–12 years would have to increase 6.6 percent a year from 2005 to 2015. More than half of all students now have no textbooks, and only 5 percent have all the textbooks they need. Remedying such deficiencies in schooling will be complicated by the need to accommodate growing numbers of students.

In 2005, 80 percent of males and 55 percent of females 15 years and older were either employed or looking for work. Almost four out of five of those employed worked in agriculture, fishing, or forestry. If the proportion of the labor force employed stays the same until 2025, the number employed will double. Even if the number of available jobs doubles in a decade, the number of unemployed individuals will increase faster, by 150 percent.

Feeding the growing Timorese population will present problems. Of the staples of maize and rice, production of maize could stay ahead of minimal national requirements if yields increase substantially from their current low levels. But even with increases in yields, the deficit in rice production will grow. By 2025, instead of filling 70–80 percent of requirements from domestic rice production, Timor-Leste will be able to fill only one-third to one-half of its minimal requirement.

Pressure will grow on the environment. Deforestation rates are already among the highest in the world, and if increasing population forces an extension of cultivation to sensitive areas, the fragile soils, steep terrain, and occasional heavy rains could make expanded cultivation self-defeating in the long run.

Although these population projections imply rapid growth, they actually assume that growth will slow as the country enters a decades-long transition, typical of developing countries, from high to low birth rates. But Timor-Leste is not a typical developing country. Fertility levels are unusually high and homogeneous, with smaller fertility differentials between socioeconomic groups than in most societies with high fertility. Urban fertility has hardly declined, and women with some secondary education are having only marginally fewer children than other women. The desire for large families is virtually universal in Timor-Leste. Even among women with six or more children, two-thirds express no interest in stopping childbearing. Knowledge about contraception is extremely low. Only one in five women can spontaneously name a contraceptive method, and an additional one in five recognizes a method when prompted. The combined percentage knowing about contraception is the lowest recorded in any national survey in developing countries in 20 years.

Timor-Leste has adopted a reproductive health policy that guarantees access to family planning services. Implementing this policy and educating households and convincing them that it is in their own best interests to reduce fertility for both health and economic reasons will be a substantial challenge. If the effort does not succeed, population could grow even faster than projected.

For the effort to succeed, the health sector will have to take substantial responsibility. This sector faces problems; above all, a disconnect exists between available health resources and poor health outcomes in the population. Solving this disconnect, particularly through improving access to services and creating an effective health education program, will be essential to underpin any family planning initiatives.

To begin to address the challenges of rapid population growth, therefore, this report recommends these initial steps:

§          Systematically incorporate population considerations into national, sectoral, and environmental planning.

§          Reaffirm the essentials of the reproductive health policy, including the provision of contraception, and ensure that relevant constituencies are aware of and understand the basis for the policy.

§          Explore ways to communicate the benefits of smaller families—in regard to health, household finances, and national needs—to a wider and wider circle of the population.

§         Strengthen the health sector and develop within it effective mechanisms for delivering and promoting contraception wherever demand could grow.