Indonesia - Perkembangan Triwulan Perekonomian Indonesia: Kembali Melaju? (Laporan)

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Figure 1 : GDP growth returned to pre-crisis averages in Q3 (per cent growth)

Figure 2: Growth across Indonesia's trading partners has rebounded
(average GDP growth, weighted by Indonesia's export shares)

Figure 3: Contributions to GDP expenditure growth
(quarter-on-quarter percentage point contributions to
aggregate GDP growth, seasonally adjusted)

Figure 4: Production sectors' contribution to growth (quarter-on-quarter percentage point contributions to aggregate GDP growth, seasonally adjusted)

Figure 5: Motor vehicle and motorcycle sales (monthly purchases)

Figure 6: BI retail sales and consumer confidence (indices)

Figure 7: Trade flows are recovering...(trade values and balance, billions of USD)

Figure 8: ...supported by global commodity prices, which are lifting Indonesia's export prices
(USD prices, indexed to 100 in July 2007)

Figure 9: The pick-up in inflation earlier in the second half of 2009 has not continued, allowing inflation to fall to decade lows (year-on-year and month-on-month inflation rates)

Figure 10: ...and consumers expect prices to be stable into the first half of 2010 (year-on-year inflation rates and index point level of inflation expectations)

Figure 11: The IDX has risen more than most regional indices, before tracking sideways from late September (equity indices indexed to 100 on 2 January 2008)

Figure 12: ...and the rupiah's appreciation against the USD is the second strongest in the region (currency pairs indexed to 100 on 2 January 2008)

Figure 13: Local currency government bond yields, steadily falling across all tenors since March, have returned to early 2007 levels (yields on 1 year to 15 year IDR sovereign bonds, percent)

Figure 14: Indonesian sovereign USD bonds have settled at levels slightly above their historical average, but have strengthened by more than most emerging market debt

Fiigure 15: Indonesia has absorbed USD 6.5 billion in foreign capital since March, USD 2.6 billion of this in September and early October

Figure 16: Reserves have increased strongly since March while M2 growth has been slow, suggesting BI has been sterilizing its foreign exchange interventions

Figure 17: Credit growth dropped sharply after September 2008 but has picked up since mid-2009

Figure 18: While other countries (apart from India) have seen credit slowdowns as well, Indonesia's stands out due to its rapid credit growth in the two years prior to October 2008

Figure 19: Despite various policy actions by the central bank, lending rates have only dropped 7 percent since January while deposit rates have fallen by 31 percent

Figure 20: Indonesia is the only country where lending and deposit rates rose in the year to June 2009

Figure 21 : Indonesia's growth outlook improves (annual average GDP growth, per cent)

Figure 22: ...along with the outlook for trading partners (average annual GDP growth of Indonesia's export destinations)

Figure 23: Roll-over rates on Indonesia's external debt have also been high through 2009

Figure 24: ...have their greatest impact on 2010 growth (annual percentage change)

Figure 25: Budget realization as per cent of revised budget (APBN-P) by end October

Figure 26: Actual stimulus spending of selected line ministries by end October

Figure 27: VAT revenues have become more volatile than consumption spending recently
(trillions of IDR)

Figure 28: VAT revenues from more industries producing more discretionary goods

Figure 29: ...were particularly weak during the slowdowns around the turn of 2009 and 2006

Figure 30: Trade values peaked in mid-2008, and troughed in February 2009

Figure 31: From March, the rupiah has nominally appreciated much more against the USD than the USD has weakened against a broad basket of currencies

Figure 32: Indonesia's exchange rate has also appreciated significantly in real terms against a basket of currencies

Figure 33: The USD Index has moved in the opposite direction to global stock indices since the onset of financial market turmoil in September 2008

Figure 34: Indonesian local currency bond yields have fallen by one-third since March, but remain well above yields elsewhere

Figure 35: There have been significant net capital inflows into Indonesia since March...

Figure 36: ...increasing the stock of foreign capital held in Indonesia by USD 6.5 billion - over one - quarter

Figure 37: Indonesia's foreign reserves have been correlated with the exchange rate since October 2008, suggesting BI has been partially limiting the exchange rate's volatility

Figure 38: Non-residents' holdings of Indonesian financial assets has fallen when country risk rises, and vice versa

Figure 39: Monetary and fiscal policy can limit the impact of capital inflows, but most options are costly

Figure 40: Movements in commodity prices are correlated with movements in the rupiah, reflecting the importance of commodities in Indonesia's exports basket

Figure 41: ...and the relationship is particularly strong against the real effective exchange rate

Figure 42: Indonesia's demographic window of opportunity will close in the next decade

Figure 43: Rising employment (per cent of working age population)

Figure 44: Stabilized unemployment(per cent of working age population)

Figure 45: Slow formal sector employment growth(per cent of working age population)

Figure 46: Stagnant non-agricultural employment(per cent of working age population)

Figure 47: Highly informal workforce(shares of the labor force

Figure 48: Formal sector employees earn more(mean log monthly wages)

Figure 49: Contract-less employees receive fewer non-wage benefits(share of workers receiving benefit)

Figure 50: Redundancy costs in Indonesia are the highest in the region(severance costs in weeks of average earnings)

Figure 51: Indonesia's health spending is relatively low

Figure 52: Only about a third of Indonesia's population enjoys health insurance coverage

Figure 53: Demographics alone will increase Indonesia's health expenditures

Figure 54: Demographics alone will increase Indonesia's health expenditures

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Perkembangan Triwulan Perekonomian Indonesia: Kembali Melaju? (Laporan)