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February 12, 2007—The impact of sea level rise from global warming could be catastrophic for many developing countries – including Vietnam, whose up to 16% of area, 35% of population and 35% of GDP can be affected if sea level rise by 5 metres. For reference, if the Greenland ice sheet were to melt completely, it would raise average sea level by approximately 7 meters.
This is the finding of a new World Bank working paper, “The impact of sea level rise on developing countries : a comparative analysis”*. The authors are Susmita Dasgupta, Benoit Laplante, Craig Meisner, David Wheeler, and Jianping Yan.
Acording to this research, highest impacts in Vietnam will be on the Red River Delta and the Mekong Delta.
The research uses satellite maps of the world overlaid with comparable data for 84 coastal developing countries to calculate the toll of such changes on people, gross domestic product (GDP), urban areas, and agriculture in five developing regions.
“Overwhelming evidence and early warning signs of human-induced climate change confirm the reality of global warming. Our socio-economic research evaluates the magnitude of the outcome and urgency of formulating preventive and protective measures in the event of sea level rise. However, the question of when it will occur can only be determined by scientific studies,” says Senior Economist and co-author Susmita Dasgupta.
“Knowing which countries will be most-affected could allow better targeting of scarce available resources and could spur vulnerable nations to develop national adaptation plans now and avoid big losses later,” explains Dasgupta.
“It’s vitally important for these countries to know, if sea level rises by 1 meter, what will be the impact; what will be the inundation area; population affected; GDP lost; loss in agricultural area; urban area; and wetlands?” she adds.
The paper takes both a global and a regional perspective. In terms of population impacted, the top 10 countries/territories worldwide are: Vietnam, Egypt, Mauritania, Suriname, Guyana, French Guiana, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, The Bahamas and Benin.
In Vietnam, an estimated 10.8 percent of the nation’s population would be displaced with even a 1 meter sea level rise – and disproportionately high impacts in the Mekong and Red River deltas.
Egypt’s Nile Delta would be similarly affected, with 10.5 percent of the population at risk, and 25 percent of the delta inundated.
“A few countries have initiated adaptation plans, but the momentum of action has been slow. We hope that the information provided in this paper will encourage more rapid action on this front,” says Dasgupta.
For more information, please go to http://econ.worldbank.org
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