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Addressing Fiscal Challenges and Enhancing Growth Prospects: A Public Expenditure and Institutional Review

Available in: Bosnian

Addressing Fiscal Challenges and Enhancing Growth Prospects: A Public Expenditure and Institutional Review

Lead Author: Ivailo Izvorski
September 2006
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) has made substantial progress in economic reconstruction and nation building since the end of the 1992-1995 war, and fiscal consolidation has been strong through 2004. The authorities should be commended for the progress achieved, but more remains to be done to further strengthen government institutions, advance transition to a market economy, and reduce risks to hard-won fiscal stability. The governments will be well advised to build on progress achieved to advance anew fiscal consolidation and address the key fiscal challenges. The latter include the need to restructure government expenditures and tackle rising spending pressures related to state-building, settling domestic debt, and improving infrastructure. The report proposes a range of reforms to address successfully these challenges.

1. The Strategic Setting

Progress in macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal reform has been substantial, but BH is still behind all other countries in Central and Eastern Europe in structural reforms. Macroeconomic challenges remain, notably the large current account deficit, the sizable and inefficient government, and narrowly-based economic growth. Poverty and unemployment are high, creating social exclusion that needs to be addressed urgently.

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2. Fiscal Background and Fiscal Sustainability

This chapter examines fiscal policy developments in BH over the last several years and analyzes the level, composition, and outcomes of government spending. Government revenues are also reviewed and recommendations are made on ways to reduce the government burden on the economy. The chapter proceeds with an analysis of fiscal sustainability and concludes with additional recommendations on fiscal policy, government spending, and institutional capacity.

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3. State-Building: A Key Challenge and an Opportunity

This chapter assumes that the current decentralized structure of governance will remain unchanged over the medium term. Discussions among political parties on constitutional reform are set to resume and may ultimately lead to a change in the structure, but it is currently unclear what these changes may be. The baseline scenario of the chapter assumes that institution building will result in lighter centralization of government than found in most EU countries.

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4. Strategic Issues in Managing the Public Administration

Strengthening the quality of public administration remains a key challenge. This chapter analyzes the high cost of public administration and outlines options for reducing the burden. The chapter also discusses current pay practices and how they contribute to or undermine performance management and equity within the public administration. Recommendations are made on enhancing incentives in the recruitment and retention of skilled staff.

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5. Education

Inefficient education spending has resulted in unacceptably low education outcomes in BH. This chapter reviews institutional arrangements and spending in education and proposes measures to help improve efficiency over the medium term while raising education outcomes. Savings from improving efficiency within the sector could more than finance a package of reforms urgently needed to begin meeting the identified challenges.

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6. Social Insurance and Protection

Substantial challenges face social insurance, including health, and the transfer programs financed from general government revenues. Given overall fiscal pressures and the need to help the neediest members of society, the authorities should aim to reduce the share of resources allocated toward untargeted social transfers, while restructuring the system to ensure that it provides an effective social safety net.

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7. Transport

Following substantial outlays in the aftermath of the war, expenditures on transport have fallen over the last several years, with outlays on rehabilitation and maintenance inadequate. This chapter reviews the expenditures and structure of the transport sector, focusing on the road and railroad sub-sectors, and estimates the annual financing needs to remove the maintenance backlog and keep the existing infrastructure in proper condition.

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