1. The Strategic Setting
Progress in macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal reform has been substantial, but BH is still behind all other countries in Central and Eastern Europe in structural reforms. Macroeconomic challenges remain, notably the large current account deficit, the sizable and inefficient government, and narrowly-based economic growth. Poverty and unemployment are high, creating social exclusion that needs to be addressed urgently.
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2. Fiscal Background and Fiscal Sustainability
This chapter examines fiscal policy developments in BH over the last several years and analyzes the level, composition, and outcomes of government spending. Government revenues are also reviewed and recommendations are made on ways to reduce the government burden on the economy. The chapter proceeds with an analysis of fiscal sustainability and concludes with additional recommendations on fiscal policy, government spending, and institutional capacity.
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3. State-Building: A Key Challenge and an Opportunity
This chapter assumes that the current decentralized structure of governance will remain unchanged over the medium term. Discussions among political parties on constitutional reform are set to resume and may ultimately lead to a change in the structure, but it is currently unclear what these changes may be. The baseline scenario of the chapter assumes that institution building will result in lighter centralization of government than found in most EU countries.
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4. Strategic Issues in Managing the Public Administration
Strengthening the quality of public administration remains a key challenge. This chapter analyzes the high cost of public administration and outlines options for reducing the burden. The chapter also discusses current pay practices and how they contribute to or undermine performance management and equity within the public administration. Recommendations are made on enhancing incentives in the recruitment and retention of skilled staff.
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5. Education
Inefficient education spending has resulted in unacceptably low education outcomes in BH. This chapter reviews institutional arrangements and spending in education and proposes measures to help improve efficiency over the medium term while raising education outcomes. Savings from improving efficiency within the sector could more than finance a package of reforms urgently needed to begin meeting the identified challenges.
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6. Social Insurance and Protection
Substantial challenges face social insurance, including health, and the transfer programs financed from general government revenues. Given overall fiscal pressures and the need to help the neediest members of society, the authorities should aim to reduce the share of resources allocated toward untargeted social transfers, while restructuring the system to ensure that it provides an effective social safety net.
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7. Transport
Following substantial outlays in the aftermath of the war, expenditures on transport have fallen over the last several years, with outlays on rehabilitation and maintenance inadequate. This chapter reviews the expenditures and structure of the transport sector, focusing on the road and railroad sub-sectors, and estimates the annual financing needs to remove the maintenance backlog and keep the existing infrastructure in proper condition.
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