Georgia - Summary Of Joint Needs Assessment Findings
Overview
Prior to the conflict of August 2008, the Georgian economy was on a strong growth track, with GDP rising by 10½ per cent annually. Rising public expenditures, financed by a substantial increase in the tax to GDP ratio, were being directed at improve-ments in education and health services and in targeted social assistance for the poor as well as infrastructure. Economic policies were guided by reliance on the private sector for growth in a highly liberal trade, investment and business environment. Also central to government policies were a belief in a small, effective government that formulated policies and financed services with delivery being delegated to the private sector, and an emphasis on high governance standards.
In early August, hostilities occurred in northern Georgia. On August 13, a cease-fire agreement that triggered a staged withdrawal of troops from the territory of Georgia was signed between the parties. Monitors from the European Union have now started patrols in an area north of Gori and adjacent to the administrative border with South Ossetia, Georgia, which contains some 50 villages with an estimated population of 24,000, and is known as the €œadjacent areas€,the remaining military forces have now begun to withdraw. The European Union-brokered agreement also calls for the return of OSCE monitors to South Ossetia. UN observers are expected to remain in Abkhazia, Georgia.
2. Immediate Impact Of The Conflict And The Initial Response
Over the last five years, Georgia has implemented far reaching strategic reforms centered on anti-corruption measures and has established strong mechanisms of accountability and transparency in government. The reforms aim at developing a competitive private sector as the main engine of growth, with the state playing a supportive role by providing basic public goods and services €“ as seen in improvements in education and health care delivery and the introduction of a well targeted social safety net to protect the extreme poor. Driven by rapidly rising foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, economic growth averaged 10½ percent per year over the last three years and reached 12½ percent in 2007.
The over-arching objective of donor assistance is to help Georgia attain its preconflict economic growth and social development trajectory. This would require addressing the immediate effects of the conflict on economy, society and infrastructure as well as strengthening the capital base through public and donor-funded investments thereby bridging to the period when full confidence returns and private investment flows are resumed. It would also create the room in the budget for higher social spending.
Looking beyond 2008, the impact of the shocks on the economy would depend on the policy response and the extent of support received from the international community. The important policy priorities lie in maintaining a counter-cyclical budgetary stance (aided by donor budget support), outlays for essential social needs, carefully managing the risks to the financial sector, and continuing infrastructure development.
Georgia's specific post-conflict needs require different forms of financing. Consistent with the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness, aid should be predictable, harmonized, and aligned with national priorities and use the country's own institutions and systems. The government would wish donors to employ existing and already planned mechanisms to the greatest degree, thereby strengthening the linkages to the national budget process.