Early warning system protects the people of Tajikistan and their neighbors.  High up in Tajikistan’s Pamir mountains lies Lake Sarez, one of Central Asia’s largest reservoirs. Among the country’s most stunning natural resources, it is also one of its most potentially dangerous.
On July 13, an early warning system sounded an alarm because the water level at the lake’s Usoy Dam had risen by more than 25 centimeters within 24 hours—a possibly perilous development. A reconnaissance mission was immediately dispatched to the lake and is still on-site. Although it was not the emergency first feared, this incident underlines the importance of monitoring the water level in the lake, which could mean the difference between life and death for thousands of people. The lake, in eastern Tajikistan, was formed after an earthquake in 1911. There have long been fears that another major earthquake or other natural event might rupture the dam holding back the water. Up to 5 million people could be affected by a massive flood  The probability of a massive flood from Lake Sarez is low, experts say. But should one occur, the impact on the downstream valleys would be devastating, affecting up to 5 million people living along the valleys of the Bartang, Pyandhz, and Amu Darya rivers as they cross Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
The early warning system at Lake Sarez, completed in December 2004, is part of a World Bank project that is helping to alert and prepare those most vulnerable to flooding and other natural hazards like mudslides, rockfalls, and avalanches.
Real-time monitoring now possible Before the project was implemented, monitoring at the lake was haphazard, said Kadam Maskaev, head of the Usoy Department, which is responsible for operating the early warning systems installed under the project. “Now, we get data on a daily basis, including the level of the lake and meteorological information such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed. We can monitor the 'behavior' of Lake Sarez in real time,” he said. Significant progress has been made since the project was launched in 2000 as a partnership among the Tajik government, the World Bank, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, the Aga Khan Foundation, USAID, and others. The monitoring and early warning systems are effective in detecting a rise in the lake’s level, and Usoy Dam staff, who have received comprehensive training on the operation and maintenance of the systems, are responding to the warnings. Training people to respond to an emergency In addition, the project is providing training on evacuation and survival. It is building the capacity of local NGOs and government agencies to rescue survivors, and identify safe havens for evacuees. “The surrounding population has been trained to respond to an emergency,” said Kadam Maskaev. “And everyone likely to be affected by a flood from the lake will get information in an emergency.” Radio communications systems have been installed in most settlements in the Bartang valley, and in some parts of the Panj Valley.  "The project is crucially important for Tajikistan," said Rita Cestti, World Bank Team Leader for the project. "Being prepared to respond to the kind of unusual hydrological event which leads to a massive flood is the best insurance available."
Such a massive flood from Lake Sarez may never happen. But Tajikistan and its neighbors are now prepared to mitigate against what the U.N. Department of Humanitarian Affairs once said could become "the deadliest natural disaster in history.” * * * For more information about the World Bank’s work in Tajikistan, visit http://www.worldbank.org/tj. |
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