The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine started in 1987 and has accelerated dramatically since then. At present, Ukraine's HIV/AIDS epidemic is among the fastest growing in Europe, with officially registered new HIV cases having doubled over 2000-2004. Data suggest Ukraine may be on the brink of the generalized epidemic phase.
The epidemic is shifting from high-risk groups to the general population. The young and women are hit hardest. The data indicate that in 2006 every fifth HIV-infected person is in the 18-24 age group. The share of women among the new cases reached 42 percent.
By 2014, the total number of HIV-positive people could range from 500 to 800 thousand people. The southern and eastern regions of Ukraine are the most affected - including the oblasts of Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and the Crimean Republic. While only a third of the country's population lives in these regions, they constitute two-thirds of all officially registered HIV cases.
Ukraine's already declining population would shrink even faster due to increased morbidity and mortality rates from AIDS. By 2014, AIDS-related deaths are projected to account for a third of all male deaths in the 15-49 age group and 60 percent of female deaths in the same age group.
HIV/AIDS epidemic has serious consequences for Ukraine's society and jeopardizes future development. In the medium-term, the study forecasts that HIV/AIDS will have a significant impact on economic growth and social welfare.
A worsening epidemic could lead to reduced labor supply and worker productivity, ballooning health care costs, and decreased public and private savings and investment. The epidemic could contribute to labor force shrinkage in the worst-affected areas at rates of 2.7-3.6 percent for Donetsk and 2.2-4.2 percent for Odessa.
If Ukraine's AIDS epidemic is not curtailed quickly, by 2014 the country's economic growth could decline by at least 6 percent.
The five year period from 2006 to 2010 will be decisive for addressing the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ukraine. Success can only come from sustained national commitment and well-coordinated efforts, particularly in terms of engaging non-governmental organizations. Prevention and treatment programs must target as a priority young people, women, and the worst-infected regions of Ukraine. A special effort must also be made to reach injecting drug users, who remain the most vulnerable group to HIV/AIDS.
The study is available here. You can also read the updated summary findings of the study prepared jointly by the World Bank and the International HIV/AIDS Alliance in Ukraine (available in Ukrainian only).
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