August 26, 2003—Next month will see the world’s trade ministers gather in Cancún, Mexico, from September 10-14, to review progress in completing the Doha Development Agenda, launched in November 2001. Much is at stake in Cancun, as Uri Dadush, Director of the International Trade Department, notes in the following interview. The ministerial will provide a barometer reading of the chances for resolving several crucial issues for developing countries, such as agricultural subsidies. What is the significance of the Cancún talks? There are misconceptions that trade liberalization is a done deal. In fact, we are a long way away from free world trade, particularly in areas of interest to developing countries. The Cancún ministerial, which is a milestone in the Doha trade negotiations, will help determine whether there is real content to the Doha Development Agenda. The Doha negotiations mark the first time that developing country interests were placed at the center of a multilateral round of trade negotiations. Those interests include agriculture, intellectual property in medicines, implementation of textile agreements, and the nature of special and differential treatment for developing countries. But these are some of the hardest areas for countries to address and, unfortunately, key negotiating deadlines on most of these issues have been missed. As a result, substantial gaps remain between the developing and the industrial countries, especially on agriculture. From the World Bank’s point of view, what is the best possible outcome of Cancún? An agreement on modalities – meaning how to negotiate – for agriculture. That would reflect the fact that all parties recognize they’re within shooting distance of a compromise on the central question affecting the poor in developing countries. This will require the flexibility of both the EU and the Cairns Group (a group of 17 agricultural exporting nations), as well as confidence that other key players, including the US, are willing to push forward. Other needed results would be a resolution on intellectual property in medicines, where the US position is critical, and establishing a process for arriving at a strategic framework on special and differential treatment. Developing countries have to demonstrate that they are ready to be full players in the negotiations, i.e. that they are ready to undertake WTO obligations in exchange for movement on the issues crucial to them. How has the Bank been advocating for a pro-development outcome? We’ve been active in the run-up to Cancún in four ways. One is through the preparation and publication of this year’s Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report. The next GEP comes out on September 3, and is essentially about the Cancún issues. Last year’s GEP also dealt with several of the issues, including behind-the-border regulatory reforms—the so-called Singapore issues—which are an important object of negotiation. We are broadly disseminating the findings of that report. The last three GEPs have taken a very candid look at trade barriers that hurt developing countries and have underlined the need for rich countries to lead by example, as well as the fact that developing countries are often their own worst enemies when it comes to trade. Second, through speeches of our most prominent spokespeople, we are outlining what would be a development outcome. Those include World Bank President’s James D. Wolfensohn, who spoke at the WTO’s General Council, and World Bank Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network Vice President Gobind Nankani, who participated in the Integrated Framework high-level meetings, and Chief Economist Nick Stern in various fora. The third way is through direct and constant exchange with the negotiators themselves. For example, this month we hosted the European Commission team for two days in Washington to discuss precisely these questions. We also had a team from the French Ministry of Agriculture in Washington to discuss the implications of agriculture reform for developing countries. I would say that somebody from the Bank’s trade department is in Geneva every month, at least, in discussions with the WTO ambassadors. We’re also participating in several regional ministerial meetings. For example, next week World Bank External Affairs Vice President Ian Goldin and I will speak in Brussels to the 79 trade ministers from Africa, the Caribbean, and Pacific. But perhaps most important, we have stepped up efforts to make trade a more central part of the policy dialogue in operations. In our view a pro-development outcome is, above all, one that induces developing countries to use trade integration more actively as a growth lever. For example comprehensive trade diagnostic studies have been launched in 20 low-income countries in the last two years, and about 40 countries—both low and middle income—have been targeted for stepping up the Bank’s trade activity. As a way to support the negotiations, we are looking for ways to provide assistance in countries that might suffer from preference erosion and/or tariff revenue losses from a trade deal. Useful links: For more information on the World Bank and international trade, visit http://www.worldbank.org/trade. For more on the Cancun ministerial and the Doha Development Agenda, go here. | 
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