Global prospects of migration

The globalization of labor markets involves both two phenomenons:

 

·    Migration of persons seeking better opportunities across borders

·    Outsourcing and offshoring of jobs to other countries

 

Firms are increasingly tapping the global market for services, for talent, and for sheer manpower, recruiting migrants and moving jobs across the world.

 

A global market for jobs and workers is developing rapidly:

 

1.    A higher international mobility of labor and jobs in the coming decades.

 

·   The internationalization of the production of goods and services;

·    Reduced communications and transportations costs;

·    Global demographic developments.

 

2.   Income growth and the prosperity of nations will depend upon the availability of a sufficiently large work force with a range of skill levels, and with the ability to adapt to the changing needs of society.

 

Demographic differences will increase pressures for migration

 

·  The population will grow by some 2.6 billion people to reach 9 billion by 2050.

·   Declining fertility and increasing longevity are contributing to an aging population worldwide.

·  The population aged over 40 years stands to increase by as much as 2 billion people (+75%).

·   The share of old-age persons (65+) will more than double.

 

Europe, Central Asia, the high-income countries in East Asia as well as China, and North America, would collectively lose 215 million workers between now and 2050, in the absence of migration, and assuming that participation rates remain unchanged.

 

Other and generally poorer regions would have migrant labor to offer. Potential migrants are likely to be young workers, i.e., the labor force aged 15-39, will be the largest in Sub-Sahara Africa, South Asia followed by MENA region . In the MENA region, the increase in the labor force in the same age group is estimated to be on the order of 44 million people.

 

To meet the challenge, deficit regions will need to adopt a comprehensive approach

 

·  Increase labor force employment rates (through, e.g., increasing retirement ages, and women’s participation rates).

·  Boost productivity (through innovation).

 

However, domestic labor market reforms will not be sufficient to close the labor force gap.

 

What role could migration play to help fill labor shortages?

 

Africa and the Middle East, South Asia and the poorer countries may have 570 million additional workers by 2050.

 

Mass migration on a scale is not a realistic alternative; such major displacement would, among other things, risk draining developing countries of their workforce.

 

However, if current migration policies and the other socioeconomic and political circumstances that drive migration stay unchanged, only a small fraction of this surplus work force - 32 million - would be willing and able to leave.