OP-ED: Droughts will always be there, so let’s learn how to mitigate them now

This op-ed was first published in the Daily Nation on August 1, 2011.
By Johannes ZUTT

In 1981, Nobel laureate Amartya Sen, writing about the great famines of the last century, noted that droughts are natural phenomena, but famines are man-made.  In the intervening years, many countries have successfully prevented drought from leading to famine, while others have not.  Today, we are again seeing famine in the Horn of Africa, in Somalia, during the most severe drought in 60 years. 

So far, there is no famine in Ethiopia or Kenya—countries that are also experiencing the drought.  But famine is declared only when two in ten households have no food, three in ten children are malnourished, and four in 10,000 children die each day.  There can be a lot of suffering and death in before these dreadful technical thresholds are met.  

This is what we are seeing today in Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands in the north and east of the country.  In May, a mid-season assessment found that failure of the long rains would leave up to 3.5 million people in these arid lands needing food aid.  Five very large rural counties--Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit and Wajir--are already food-insecure.  These are also among the poorest counties in Kenya, with poverty rates between 55% and 85% before the drought hit. 

In addition, Kenya is hosting the world’s largest refugee camp, Dadaab, which I visited last Sunday.  Every day, 1,300 Somalis are reportedly reaching the camp, seeking refuge from insecurity and climate change.  Dadaab now has about 400,000 Somalis as well as a large Kenyan host community, making it Kenya’s third largest city. 

As an established camp, Dadaab is well-organized to receive government and international assistance, including food, water and health care.  Even so, rapidly increasing numbers are overwhelming current capacities and seriously straining the environment—which was already fragile before this growing population arrived.   Moreover, many of the most recent arrivals, particularly the very young and the very old, are in terrible condition and need extra help. 

Still, they may be among the lucky ones.  Others have not been able to make the arduous journey to find relief and are slowly dying of hunger or disease out of the reach of government or international assistance, or media cameras.

In Kenya, the government and its development partners, including the World Bank, are responding. 

On May 30, President Kibaki declared a national disaster and suspended the tariff on maize imports—thus encouraging more imports and also exerting downward pressure on Kenya’s maize prices, which have doubled since December and are again exceeding international prices.   As Kenya has a structural food deficit, due to its limited arable land and its rapidly growing population, the tariff should be removed permanently.

On July 14, the Cabinet permitted millers to import genetically-modified maize for production into flour and also approved Ksh 8 billion in spending to provide emergency assistance in response to the drought.   These funds are being used to double the government’s food distribution, repair boreholes, truck water where needed, treat and offtake livestock, provide nutritional supplements, and support the school feeding program—which has been a critical lifeline to many of the poorest children in areas hard-hit by drought.  But NCPB also needs to be made more efficient—and transparent, so that everyone can see what it is doing and capable of doing, and plan accordingly.

Many donors have—appropriately—increased their humanitarian aid to Kenya.  The World Bank is not a humanitarian agency, but we are doing our part.  Under the Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVC) program, we are supporting a rise in the cash transfer being provided to beneficiary households to help them to manage rising food prices.  Additional financing to an ongoing water project will help Water Sector Boards develop drought mitigation plans and acquire additional drought-mitigating equipment.  We are also reallocating funds under existing projects to address emergency needs, e.g.,  for essential drugs, and exploring ways to channel financing to emergency programs run by our sister agencies in the UN. 

As a development institution, the Bank’s key interest involves strengthening Kenya’s medium- and long-term response to drought and the threat of famine—work that was underway before this drought started and that will continue after it has gone.  Through past projects, we increased the drought preparedness of communities in the arid lands by improving water access and availability, access to livestock feed, and support for drought-resilient agriculture.  Working with the government and other partners, we developed an Early Warning System that improved drought response through early warning bulletins, rapid food security assessments, and community feedback meetings. 

The impact of these activities is considerable.  During the droughts of 2004/5 and 2009, the proportion of people needing food aid fell by 40% in arid districts compared to the drought of 2000/1.  The reported response time was 7.6 weeks in 2000 but 3.5 weeks in 2009, with use of the early warning bulletin.  The percentage of children showing worsening nutrition levels in project sites was only 20%, compared to about 45% in non-project areas. 

But more can and should be done to improve the resilience of the poor to drought and climate-change.  This is where the World Bank can help the most.  Building on considerable research, we are working with the government to identify and finance a large project to safeguard water security in specified water-scare areas in Kenya, including Nairobi, which has not expanded water storage appreciably since the Bank helped to build the Ndakaini reservoir in the early 1990s.  We are also working with the government to consolidate existing safety net programs (such as the OVC program, the Hunger Safety Net program and the Elderly Persons program) onto a single registry using biometric identification and robust electronic payment systems.  By bringing Kenya’s poor into such a program, the government in the future will be able rapidly to scale-up cash transfers in emergency situations—increasing both the number of beneficiaries and if needed the amount of the benefit transferred.

In addition, the Bank will work with the government to improve agricultural productivity and adopt modern irrigation techniques, to help farmers to adapt to climate change.  The best response to drought is made before the crisis begins.

Building on past successes, Kenya can make famine a problem of the past, even though we know that drought will increasingly be a part of its future. 

Mr Zutt is the World Bank’s country director for Eritrea, Kenya, Rwanda and Somalia.