The second in our semi-annual series of India Updates points out that India's economic growth seems to be back to the pre-crisis trend, but inflation is worrying. The RBI is likely to continue its policy of cautious rate hikes in an uncertain environment. The signals are not clear whether core inflation is caused by more general demand pressures, which would best be addressed with more aggressive policy tightening, or by second round effects of earlier food and commodity price shocks, for which the current monetary policy stance is likely to be adequate. The December 2010 Update also discusses several medium-term issues: the link between the real exchange rate and growth, a long-term look at education, demographics and growth, the challenges facing the introduction of the GST, and the mid-term evaluation of the Eleventh Development Plan.
Link to India Economic Update December 2010 (Size: 1.28 MB.pdf)
Link to India Economic Update June 2010 (Size: 543 KB.pdf) |
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