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Extrapolations

This topic deals with the issue of moving benchmark estimates to other years both backward and also forward until the next benchmark. One approach is to simply apply national GDP growth rates to real GDP estimates, which was past practice in OECD and present practice at the Bank.  OECD now has an approach that takes account of both benchmarks in years between two benchmarks.  One question is whether to disaggregate extrapolated estimates. In PWT, the practice has been to disaggregate and make estimates in both current and constant prices. 

The Bank uses GDP per capita national growth rates to extrapolate to other years, PWT uses cons, government and investment component growth rates but then it combines them into the real GDP using component shares in real terms as estimated from the ICP. That leads to the PWT GDP growth being different from WB/national GDP growth rates, which combines GDP components using national component weights. A report on this topic should evaluate what is done in light of the literature on consistency between benchmarks.




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