Climate Change

Most climate scientists agree that climate change induced by human activity is occurring and that further change is inevitable. This poses a challenge to both the global environment and economic development. Recent studies indicate that human actions in the last 100 years have triggered an unprecedented rise in global surface temperatures and ocean levels, with a worrisome acceleration particularly over the last two decades. The consequences of these changes will affect billions of people, particularly in poor countries and in subtropical regions, leading to water shortages and decreases in agricultural productivity. Another serious risk is a rise in mortality rates due to heat stress and increased range of waterborne diseases. Beyond these effects, if the global climate is pushed far out of balance, it may become launched on an irreversible course toward catastrophe, with worldwide repercussions.

Thus the need is urgent to develop an effective approach to adapting to a world in which a changing climate is affecting livelihoods, especially of the poor. For that a global framework is needed, one that matches long-term global development needs with the necessary technical innovation and with the financial tools that will support consistent progress toward a low-carbon global economy. This seminar will discuss the challenge of climate change, the attendant controversies, and the action programs already launched, such as the Kyoto Protocol, the Global Environment Facility, and the commitments made at the conclusion of the G-8 Gleneagles Summit.

Energy

The world economy of 2035 will be four times the size it is now, thanks largely to rising incomes in developing countries. Even if dramatic improvements in energy efficiency could be assumed, this quadrupled world activity will demand much more energy than is being consumed now. At current consumption patterns, the pressures will only get worse for fossil fuels, biomass, and electricity. Today, while, as noted above, the richest 20 percent of the world’s population consume 58 percent of the energy produced in a given year, the poorest 20 percent consume only 4 percent.

Unless these consumption patterns change, the energy issue will become more acute. At the same time, world economic activity must become radically less carbon intensive, to avoid not only environmental disaster (through climate change) but health disaster on an epic scale as well. A shift to renewable energy and low- or no-carbon fuels is essential, as are the development and adoption of energy-efficient technologies. This seminar will discuss current trends and future projections of energy use, the prospects for expanding supply, the determinants of energy production, the question of access, and the environmental effects of energy use and strategies for sustainable energy development.