Biljana Chroneos-Krasavac: To strengthen the export and macroeconomic stability
[interview by: Voice of America, June 21, 2010]
Serbia needs a new model of growth - Serbian representative in the World Bank, Biljana Chroneos-Krasavac looked new and perhaps unique model of economic growth of Serbia, the situation in the EU, the development perspectives of Serbia with the EU and the future of Serbia and the IMF.
Chroneos-Krasavac: "While there is no unique model of growth, we are known key components of growth, and they are certainly leadership, globalization and capital. Posticanja leadership from the standpoint of national unity, the introduction of innovative policies, institution building and, of course, a political consensus. From the standpoint of Serbia, it means that Serbia must leave as soon as the current growth model, which is based on consumption and to shift to a new model, which will focus on strengthening export and mainly on a macro-economic stability and sustainablity. We have to say tht our econimic growth in the period since 2001, by 2008 followed by a rate of 5.4 percent, which went at the expense of two key macro-economic balance. First of all, the share of consumption in GDP was very high, and this is regulated through imports, which are dinanced through privatization receipts, on the other side - primarily through private sector borrowing abroad, as well as a result, even before the beginning of financial crisis, foreign high deficit and current account deficits.
On the other hand, economic growth is based on the growth of services, while the share of industry and agriculture, very low so that only the participation of exports in GDP was very low and that of course means that we on this record area. For these reasons must leave the current model of growth and we have to point out that a smaller inflow of foreign capital, foreign direct investment, and that just happens to be the environment changes, it is less privatization revenues, and are low and effects the growth of employment. "
VOA: What Future for the European uniiju sees in this context, the role and position of Serbia?
Chroneos-Krasavac: "Last week we have a large fluctuation of Euros and that just points to a growth instability and mistrust in the rapid recovery of Europe. Many economists, including Soros, alleging that the crisis is far from complete and that we enter the so-called second act of the drama which is called just a global recession. He announced that many European economies have negative growth next year and also indicates that there is a risk for some of them to experience the so-called "double dip" or a deepening recession.
The economic picture is not the brightest of the European Union, however, Europe still remains the only way for Serbia. It must coordinate their development priorities in Europe. It is a concept of Europe 2020th years, which means a stable, inclusive and sustainable growth. From the standpoint of Serbia, it would primarily meant high rates of economic growth high, but sustainable, while increasing competitiveness and creating jobs, increasing exports, primarily, which will have a greater participation of agriculture and industry, which will be based on new , upgraded technology, higher rates of domestic and foreign investment, total public sector reform, price stability and at the same time infrastructure development, increasing employment rates, which is based on a new and active role and exchange of knowledge, and of course sustainable trade deficit and current balance of payments deficit. "
VOA: What is the future of Serbia with the International Monetary Fund?
Chroneos-Krasavac: "The current program, which is currently active with Serbia ends with the 2011th year so that will be open at that point whether to continue the program with the IMF. What we emphasize is that the 2011th years for Serbia election year and there will be increased spending for such purposes. At the same time 2011th years and years to be a kind of challenge for Serbia in terms of just the financing of its external obligations. For these reasons, the program with the IMF, each member country provides a continuous monitor, restrictive monetary, fiscal and financial policies of the country and keeps the country in terms of sustainable budget deficits. These are the main values of the countries with the IMF and for these reasons; I believe that it is for each country, especially in this remedy situations, it is very important. However, the government of Serbia will be those who will be based on the established priorities of the country and deep analysis of the macroeconomic situation in the country and possible sources of funding will have to decide if you will, after the 2011th the program will continue cooperation with the IMF. "