Remarks at the Conference de Montreal

We are indebted to the country because of the leadership of Mr. Pearson, in earlier times, when he focused on the importance of having 0.7 percent of GDP as the target for development.  We became conscious also of the contributions in the summit in 1971 with Canada on the environment and subsequent summits at which the Prime Minister was also present in Brazil.  I'm old enough to have been at the summit in 1971 with Maurice Strong, who was then an extraordinarily important factor in the environment.

We are very conscious also of the current leadership that this country is showing in terms of its commitment to participate in the trade negotiations in which it is an advocate of the position of free trade for the developing countries, of your leadership in terms of aid and in terms of the leadership of this country for many years and most recently under Paul Martin.

But why is it that I came to talk about that area outside this province?  Well, it is, I'm afraid, because it is impossible today to hide behind any wall, however large and however wonderful the local environment.  I can quote I think no one better, since the Prime Minister quoted me, I'm going to quote your national Prime Minister, Paul Martin, when he said recently in a speech in relation to the importance of the world outside Canada the following, "Once protected by oceans, today's front line stretches from the streets of Kabul to cities in the United States, from the rail lines in Madrid to cities across Canada.  Our adversaries could be operating in the mountains of Afghanistan, in the cities of Europe and within our own borders.  There is no home front.  The conflict is not over there, and our approach to security must reflect this reality."

And I start with security because it is something that is on everybody's mind at the moment.  Indeed, it is the dominant subject of debate in the global community, a debate which is built around the issue of security itself, of Iraq, of Afghanistan, of the Middle East, the issues which tend to propel themselves onto the front page of newspapers and dominate many of the national debates, as well as the attribution of funding and the involvement of people in global affairs.

But the reason I think what you are doing at this conference is so important, and what I believe we in the World Bank are doing is important, is that there is another dynamic going on at the same time if one looks at the problems of terror and the problems of globalization seen as a defensive issue.  And that line of thinking is as follows:

We live in a world which is not the 30 million people of Canada, a half-percent of the global population.  It's a world of 6 billion people, and 5 billion of those people live in developing countries.  That 1 billion of which Canada is part has 80 percent of the global income, and indeed Canada itself has 3 percent of the global income, with half-percent of the population.

In the 5 billion people in the developing world, and a few also from the developed world, but few, we have more than 2.3 billion people that live under $2 a day.  There are 1.2 billion people that live under $1 a day.  We have 1.5 billion people that have no access to clean water.  They have between 2- and 2.5 billion people who do not have access to sanitation.  They have got 1.5 billion that do not have access to electricity.  They have got 2.5 billion people that cut down trees and use biomass to cook and so often kill themselves by asphyxiation and disorders that are caused by the noxious gasses that come in their houses.

So we have a world in which there is a tremendous amount of inequity.  And you might ask them why, in Quebec or in Montreal, is this a problem?  The view that we take is that this form of inequity, this form of instability, cannot last if there is to be stability and peace on our planet.  We don't think we're doing too well now, but in the next 20 to 25 years, we'll add another 2 billion to the planet.  And in the year 2025, or thereabouts, we'll have a planet not of 6 billion, but of 8 billion, and we'll have 7 billion people in developing countries and maybe 50 million more in the developed world.  And by 2050, it doesn't get much better for the 8 billion out of 9.

And the issue that confronts us and faces us is how is it that we can develop a world with growing instability, growing inequity and with a growing number of people without hope?  The Prime Minister was kind enough to remind me of a quote of something that I said some time ago, but it is still true.

People need hope.  It is not that someone that has nothing is going to go out and shoot, is going to become a terrorist, but you are much more likely to have peace and security if those people have the very thing that you all want here.  They want voice.  The women don't want to be beaten.  They want an opportunity for their children.  They'd like to have a safe location in which to live.  The Prime Minister said, and with which I warmly agree, they want to build on their culture and their history.  And for their children and themselves they want a chance, they want hope.  People with hope don't take a gun and go out and shoot you.  People with hope are the basis for economic, for social, for intellectual growth.

And, indeed, your conference has not just an economic motive, it also has a motive of building a world in which people can have hope.  That is, in a way, the highest motive of this conference.

As I saw yesterday in D-Day, I watched, with great emotion last night, the Canadian participation, the Australian participation, in which young people of 20 willingly gave their lives because they knew why they were giving them, and it was the thing that no one doubted they should do, not them, not their parents, not their families.

But today what is crucial is that, in addition to the economic motives, you, as Canadians, I, as a--I'm still an Australian by heart--need to show that same sort of naivete that we showed in World War II, a naivete of purpose, for which we are often criticized as we go overseas, but a naivete which says that values are important and that one does these things not just because you pay for it, but because it's right.

One of the great strengths of this country, and which came out to me yesterday as I watched the television, is the fact that Canada does not have a lot of baggage in its history.  It is a country that, as Paul Martin commented recently, is not a country which melts down culture, it's a mosaic of cultures.

It's a country which says that British North America has talked of governance or talked of the rights of people, has talked of the expectations and hopes of people, and it's been a country that has, over the years, with some bumps up and down, dealt with two cultures and, more recently, with a greater recognition for the rights of indigenous people far ahead, may I say, than my own original country or my own country of origin.  But it's a country which has respected rights and has respected the importance of equity in social justice.

I'd like to say that this is at least as much an important factor in your conference as the issues which you are addressing in terms of technology or business, of economics, because Canada has, and can, be a light to much of the world in terms of the value systems, in terms of the morality and ethics, and may I say too few people are proclaiming that today as a reason to be involved in development.

But it is a strength of your country.  And Canadians can, I think, proudly assert that this country is not only a model economically, but is a model in terms of living together, in terms of mutual respect and in terms of values.

But you've got more than that.  What you have done in terms of development is to pick out the number of areas in which you have excelled, in which I encourage you to excel, but let me get, before I get to that point, at least deal with the economic region.  Currently, your trade is roughly 6 percent with developing countries, and that's not enough, at least I wouldn't have thought it's enough when you have 85-percent dependence in this province on the United States.

As you look forward, the developing world, which today is 18 or 19 percent of the global GDP, will be by the year 2050 40 percent of the global GDP, largely driven by demographics, but not alone by demographics.  Our estimates would have us believe that by the year 2050 we'll have a global GDP not of $34-, $35 trillion, which we do today, but $120 trillion making, more or less, a 3-percent increase year-on-year.

And the $6- to $7 trillion of the developing world in GDP will be $56 trillion.  And the rest of the world, the $24 trillion that is now the GDP of the rich countries, will be $75 trillion.   Let me remind you the developing world will go up 8 to 9 times in this period, while the rich world goes up 3 times.  And you're then more close, in terms of the GDP, than $56 trillion in developing countries and $75 trillion in the rich world.  Just as an economic matter, that becomes something of interest to the people in this room and to this country.

And Canada has a great advantage.  You are working in the developing world.  You have not colonized anywhere that I'm aware of.  Maybe you have, but I'm not aware.

[Laughter.]

You tried Australia and failed.

[Laughter.]

You have close relationships in all sorts of funny places.  I was just in China for five days working and meeting with the leadership.  There is no country in the world that has a better reputation in China than Canada, both in terms of your medical practice with the first leader, your first ambassador, and the way in which you held your hand out at the time of the new government.

But Canada is not as fully represented I think or maybe it's not taken as significant advantage of that extraordinary market as you might, and now that market, as you know, is a $1.5-trillion market larger than Canada.  And then the Caribbean, and then many other odd places that you so well know, be it in Central Europe or the U.K. or other places.

But there is a strong economic incentive for Canada.  Endowed as you are with knowledge, technology that you discussed this morning, natural resources, and then the issue that again the Prime Minister spoke of, governance.  One of the things which Paul Martin has been emphasizing is the contribution that this country can make, in terms of transfer of knowledge and, in particular, building entities within the space and the framework of government.

You probably know that at the Millennial Summit many goals were set for development in terms of poverty, in terms of health, in terms of education, in terms of the environment, and there isn't time to do any of them.  But in subsequent meetings in Monterrey and in Johannesburg, it was agreed by the parties freely that for the developing countries they had to do a number of things.

They have to build their capacities, Item No. 1, not imposed by the World Bank, not imposed by anyone.  It was a self-description.

Secondly, they needed to have legal and judicial reform so that they could protect rights.

Thirdly, that they would have financial systems that were clean and that were appropriate.

And, fourthly, that they should fight corruption.

This country has demonstrated a great capacity in terms of training.  With my colleagues at the World Bank Institute and with many inputs from this country, we are already doing on-the-spot training, but we are now expanding very much into distance learning, a subject in which this country has a long and significant history.

In this city, we are working in the medical field, we're working in the government administrative field.  And the government here has said, "Let's help on the governance side.  Let's deal with the nonfinancial.  Let's go through the structures."

And so you have, for a country of this size, huge and disproportionate power in terms of what you can do.  In fact, in the case of Sri Lanka, at the moment, they have come to you for advice because they have a multicultural society that's having problems, and you have the experience in putting together a federal system that reflects the differences in a multicultural society, and you are helping to build governance in those areas.

So whether it be in governance or whether it be in AIDS, where you have taken an important leadership role in putting up $160 million, but in particular $100 million for the initiative on AIDS, which is the so-called 3-by-5, having 3 million people under treatment for AIDS by 2005, 3 million out of 6 million who are now needing retrovirals, and where the current level is only 300,000 receiving retrovirals. Whether it's your own work in terms of the legislation that's been passed in this country for low-priced drugs, the generic drugs that can be manufactured in this country. Whether it's your work on education where you are supporting Tanzania and Mozambique in terms of a fast track to get education for all children. Whether it be on renewables where you are working and have great experience in terms of renewable energy, in addition to normal energy sources, but also finally the contribution of civil society. May I now say youth because you have formed the Youth Corps, as you may know, and you're now on the front lines of trying to work with youth around the world, youths which represent 2.8 billion people in the planet of 6 who are under the age of 24 and a billion-and-a-half that are under the age of 15.

And when I've met with groups of young people when I first started intense meetings 2 years ago, and I was talking to them about their role in the future, they said to me, "Mr. Wolfensohn, we're not the future, we're the now."  And you have the now in Canada with the Youth Corps and with young people who can have an influence, a disproportionate influence, by focusing on the next level of leadership.

I can see literally dozens of areas in which this country can take a lead not based on the half-percent of the world's population or the 3 percent of GDP, but based on something that is much more important.  Yes, you can make the argument based on self-interest; yes, you can make the argument based on its being the ultimate security measure; and, yes, you can make it as an economic argument.

But the arguments that I think should color your conference, in addition to the remarkable subjects that are set for the next few days, is the dream for Canada.  It's the belief in Canada.  It's not just a belief in Quebec. It's a belief that you have the responsibility, as citizens of the world, to let others share in the good fortune of this multicultural society.

If we don't do it, there will be no peace, and you will have no peace in Quebec.  But you have a unique possibility of contributing to a world of peace and stability.  And I think that this conference, which has been so successful over a period of years, which combines within it the private sector, civil society, government, and all sectors of society should send out a really confident message that you have the knowledge, you have the resources, you have the experience, but most of all you have the moral fiber and the belief that development is the right thing, and you can then truly be a light to the world.

Thank you very much.