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The global outlook in summary, 2007-2011
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| Percent change from previous year, except interest rates and oil price |
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| | | | | | 2007 | 2008e | 2009f | 2010f | 2011f | | Global Conditions | | | | | | | World Trade Volume | 7.5 | 3.7 | -9.7 | 3.8 | 6.9 | | Consumer Prices | | | | | | | | | G-7 Countries a,b | 1.7 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | | | | United States | 2.6 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | | Commodity Prices (USD terms) | | | | | | | | | Non-oil commodities | 17.1 | 21.0 | -30.1 | -2.1 | 1.4 | | Oil Price (US$ per barrel) c | 71.1 | 97.0 | 55.5 | 63.0 | 65.8 | | | | Oil price (percent change) | 10.6 | 36.4 | -42.7 | 13.4 | 4.6 | | Manufactures unit export value d | 5.5 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 | | Interest Rates | | | | | | | | | $, 6-month (percent) | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | | | | €, 6-month (percent) | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | | Real GDP growth e | | | | | | | World | 3.8 | 1.9 | -2.9 | 2.0 | 3.2 | | | Memo item: World (PPP weights) f | 5.0 | 3.0 | -1.7 | 2.8 | 4.0 | | | High income | 2.6 | 0.7 | -4.2 | 1.3 | 2.4 | | | | | OECD Countries | 2.5 | 0.6 | -4.2 | 1.2 | 2.3 | | | | | Euro Area | 2.7 | 0.6 | -4.5 | 0.5 | 1.9 | | | | | Japan | 2.3 | -0.7 | -6.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | | | | | United States | 2.0 | 1.1 | -3.0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | | | | | Non-OECD countries | 5.6 | 2.4 | -4.8 | 2.2 | 4.6 | | | Developing countries | 8.1 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 5.7 | | | | | East Asia and Pacific | 11.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 7.8 | | | | | | China * | 13.0 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | | | | | | Indonesia | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 6.0 | | | | | | Thailand | 4.9 | 2.7 | -3.2 | 2.2 | 3.1 | | | | | Europe and Central Asia | 6.9 | 4.0 | -4.7 | 1.6 | 3.3 | | | | | | Russia | 8.1 | 5.6 | -7.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | | | | | | Turkey | 4.7 | 1.1 | -5.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | | | | | | Poland | 6.7 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 3.5 | | | | | Latin America and Caribbean | 5.8 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 2.0 | 3.3 | | | | | | Brazil | 5.7 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 2.5 | 4.1 | | | | | | Mexico | 3.3 | 1.4 | -5.8 | 1.7 | 3.0 | | | | | | Argentina | 8.7 | 6.8 | -1.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | | | | | Middle East and North Africa | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.6 | | | | | | Egypt g | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 5.0 | | | | | | Iran g | 6.2 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | | | | | | Algeria | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 4.0 | | | | | South Asia | 8.4 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 7.8 | | | | | | India g | 9.0 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 8.5 | | | | | | Pakistan g | 6.4 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 4.5 | | | | | | Bangladesh g | 6.4 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | | | | | Sub-Saharan Africa | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 5.2 | | | | | | South Africa | 5.1 | 3.1 | -1.5 | 2.6 | 4.1 | | | | | | Nigeria | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 5.6 | | | | | | Kenya | 7.1 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 4.9 | | Memorandum items | | | | | | | | Developing countries | | | | | | | | | excluding transition countries | 8.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 4.7 | 5.9 | | | | excluding China and India | 6.1 | 4.5 | -1.6 | 2.5 | 3.9 | Source: World Bank.
All forecasts and databases for the Global Development Finance 2009 report were frozen on June 5, 2009.
*The latest country forecast for China (as of June 18, 2009) is available in the China Quarterly Update.
Note: PPP = purchasing power parity; e = estimate; f= forecast.
a. Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the United States.
b. In local currency, aggregated using 2000 GDP Weights.
c. Simple average of Dubai, Brent and West Texas Intermediate.
d. Unit value index of manufactured exports from major economies, expressed in USD.
e. GDP in 2000 constant dollars; 2000 prices and market exchange rates.
f. GDP measured at 2000 PPP weights. | | g. In keeping with national practice, data for Egypt, Iran, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are reported on a fiscal year basis. Expressed on a calendar year basis, GDP growth in these countries is as in the table on the right. | | 2008e | 2009f | 2010f | 2011f | | Egypt | 6.7 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 4.6 | | Iran | 6.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | | India | 7.3 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 8.5 | | Pakistan | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | | Bangladesh | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | | | | | | |
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