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Forecast summary, 2006-2010

Percent change from previous year, except interest rates and oil price

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Global Conditions

2006

2007e

2008f

2009f

2010f

World Trade Volume

9.7

7.5

4.5

7.2

8.4

Consumer Prices
   G-7 Countries a,b

2.0

1.9

2.6

1.8

2.0

   United States

3.2

2.9

3.9

2.3

2.5

Commodity Prices (expressed in US$)
   Non-oil commodities

29.1

17.0

24.1

-8.2

-9.0

Oil Price (US$ per barrel) c

64.3

71.1

108.1

105.5

98.5

   Oil Price (percent change)

20.4

10.6

52.1

-2.4

-6.7

Manufactures unit export value d

1.6

3.9

6.8

0.7

1.4

Interest Rates
   $, 6-month (percent)

5.2

5.2

3.0

3.8

4.5

   €, 6-month (percent)

3.1

4.4

4.5

4.0

4.5

.
Real GDP Growth e

2006

2007e

2008f

2009f

2010f

World

4.0

3.7

2.7

3.0

3.4

   Memo item: World (PPP weights) f

5.4

5.4

4.3

4.5

4.8

.
   High Income

3.0

2.6

1.6

2.0

2.5

      OECD Countries

2.9

2.5

1.5

1.8

2.3

      Euro Area

2.8

2.6

1.7

1.5

1.9

      Japan

2.4

2.0

1.4

1.6

2.1

      United States

2.9

2.2

1.1

1.9

2.5

      Non-OECD Countries

5.7

5.5

4.8

4.8

5.0

.
   Developing Countries

7.6

7.8

6.5

6.4

6.4

      East Asia and Pacific

9.7

10.5

8.6

8.5

8.4

         China

11.1

11.9

9.4

9.2

9.0

         Indonesia

5.5

6.3

6.0

6.4

6.5

         Thailand

5.1

4.8

5.0

5.4

5.5

      Europe and Central Asia

7.3

6.8

5.8

5.4

5.4

         Russia

7.4

8.1

7.1

6.3

6.0

         Turkey

6.9

4.5

4.0

4.3

5.0

         Poland

            6.1

6.5

5.7

5.1

5.0

      Latin America and the Caribbean

5.6

5.7

4.5

4.3

4.2

         Brazil

3.8

5.4

4.6

4.4

4.5

         Mexico

4.8

3.3

2.7

3.5

3.6

         Argentina

8.5

8.7

6.9

5.0

4.5

      Middle East and North Africa

5.4

5.7

5.5

5.3

5.1

         Egypt

6.8

7.1

7.0

6.8

6.5

         Iran

5.9

7.6

5.7

5.2

4.5

         Algeria

1.8

3.0

3.5

3.5

4.0

      South Asia

9.0

8.2

6.6

7.2

7.6

         India

9.7

8.7

7.0

7.5

8.0

         Pakistan

6.9

6.4

5.0

5.5

6.0

         Bangladesh

6.6

6.4

5.7

6.5

6.6

      Sub-Saharan Africa

5.8

6.1

6.3

5.6

5.9

         South Africa

5.4

5.1

4.2

4.4

4.8

         Nigeria

6.0

6.1

7.9

7.2

6.6

         Kenya

6.1

6.3

5.0

5.7

5.9

.
Memorandum Items

2006

2007e

2008f

2009f

2010f

   Developing Countries
      excluding transition countries

7.6

7.9

6.5

6.5

6.5

      excluding China and India

6.0

6.1

5.2

5.0

5.0

Source: World Bank.
a Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
b In local currency, aggregated using 2000 GDP Weights.
c Simple average of Dubai, Brent, and West Texas Intermediate.
d Unit value index of manufactured exports from major economies, expressed in U.S. dollars.
e GDP in 2000 constant dollars; 2000 prices and market exchange rates.
f GDP measured at 2000 PPP weights.
Note: PPP = purchasing power parity; e = estimate; f = forecast.

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