Developing country GDP is expected to expand by 6 percent in each of 2013 and 2014, somewhat slower than the 6.3 percent average pace during the first 7 years of this century. For 2012, weak carryover from the year before will be reflected in a deceleration of annual growth in all regions despite firming quarterly growth, but subsequent developments diverge across regions.
In South Asia, growth is anticipated to remain subdued, as growth in India settles at around 7 percent over the 2012-14 period. Elsewhere, the acceleration in 2013 and 2014 is expected to be strongest in the Middle-East & North Africa as the conflicts that are currently disrupting activity in several countries in the region are assumed to gradually resolve during the course of 2012. Growth in several large middle-income countries (notably, Brazil and China) is expected to moderate somewhat in 2014 as countries bump up against capacity constraints.
Despite the slower growth projected for developing countries, and the acceleration in high-income countries, the developing world will still account for more than half of global growth throughout 2012/14.