Economic developments in the Middle East and North Africa region continue to be heavily influenced by the disruptions caused by the social unrest that started more than 18 months ago. In addition to the challenges posed by societal violence in some cases and sometimes fundamental political change, the external environment for the region is weak because of its close ties with high-income Europe. GDP growth for the aggregate of the developing region eased to 1 percent in 2011 from 3.8 percent in 2010, on weaker outturns for Egypt and Tunisia; and declining output for those countries in civil conflict. Output is projected to strengthen in 2013 and 2014 on the back of increased political stability, improved conditions in Europe, portending a return of FDI and tourism flows. Nevertheless, regional GDP is projected to rise by only 2.2 and 3.4 percent in 2013 and 2014 – well below the 4.8 percent average growth recorded during 2000-2008.
Middle East and North Africa regional forecast (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
Source: World Bank. a. Growth rate over intervals are compound average; growth contributions, ratios, and the GEP deflator are averages. b. GDP measured in constant 2005 U.S. dollars. c. GDP measured at PPP exchange rates. d. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).
Middle East and North Africa country forecasts (annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
Source: World Bank. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assesments of countries' prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time. Djibouti, Libya, and West Bank and Gaza are not forecast owing to data limitations. a. Growth rate over intervals are compound average; growth contributions, ratios, and the GEP deflator are averages. b. GDP measured in constant 2005 U.S. dollars.
Middle East and North Africa net capital flows US$ billions
Source: World Bank. Note: e = estimate; f = forecast