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Regional Summaries

Global Economic Prospects 2004: Realizing the Development Promise of the Doha Agenda

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East Asia and Pacific

Middle East and North Africa

Eastern Europe and Central AsiaSouth Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

 

 

 

 

 

 


East Asia and Pacific

Pace of regional recovery dampened in first half of 2003 by renewed economic slowdown in developing world, relatively high oil prices in first half of 2003, and SARS outbreak, but expected to rebound progressively…Developing East Asian growth expected to dip to 6.1 percent in 2003 from 6.7 percent in 2002, before picking up pace in 2004 and later years…In medium to long term, region expected to achieve per capita growth of close to 5.5 percent, given continued efforts to improve structural policies and quality of institutions…

 

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

GDP estimated to have expanded by 4.6 percent in 2002; firming up of regional economic growth driven by 15 percentage point swing in Turkey’s performance…Regional aggregate growth expected to slow moderately to 4.3 percent in 2003, partly due to projected moderation of growth in Turkey following 2002 upswing…Regional growth expected to accelerate to 4.5 percent in 2004, then decelerate to 4.1 percent in 2005, reflecting divergent trends at sub-regional levels…Higher investment rates, ongoing restructuring of capital base expected to contribute to stronger growth in CEE countries during second decade of transition; comparatively slower long-term growth in CIS countries where implementation of structural reforms is not as advanced, widespread as in CEECs…Risks include slower than anticipated global trade and growth prospects, risks related to domestic policies and investor confidence, and energy prices…

 


Latin America and the Caribbean

Region has begun to recover from last year’s recession; growth in 2003 projected to reach 1.8 percent, compared to previous year’s contraction of 0.8 percent…Improving world trade growth coupled with increased OECD economic growth led by the US should further boost export-led recovery in 2004-05…By 2004, Argentina and Uruguay will have surpassed the worst of their crises, and Brazil and Columbia their potential for crises…Regional average growth rate should climb to 3.7 percent in 2004, 3.8 percent in 2005…In long term, region could achieve higher growth rates if countries overcame several critical structural constraints…

 

Middle East and North Africa

Overarching event in 2002-03 was buildup towards war in Iraq, provoking continued high oil prices, further shocks to tourism sector and declining confidence in private sector…Acceleration of output growth to 3.2 percent in oil-exporting countries in 2002; current account balances in surplus in 2002 for oil exporters at $20 billion, 4.8 percent of GDP…Developments were more adverse for diversified exporters…Regional growth expected to rise slightly in 2003 to 3.3 percent as oil exporters increase production and exports, and diversified exporters recover from adverse impacts of slowing external demand and drought conditions…GDP growth in oil-exporting countries should reach 3.9 percent in 2003-04; growth in diversified exporters forecast to remain sluggish in 2003 at 2.4 percent, owing to stagnation in tourism for first half of year…Reducing unemployment through higher GDP growth remains key challenge for region in the long term…

 

South Asia

GDP growth declined to 4.2 percent in 2002 from 4.9 percent in 2001; slowdown largely reflecting adverse weather and decline in agricultural output…Growth forecast to accelerate in 2003, up to an average of 5.4 percent assuming return to normal agricultural production, recovery in external demand, and continued improvements in political security and regional stability…Growth expected to maintain average of close to 5.4 percent over medium term under similar assumptions…Long-term output forecast to average about 5.4 percent, assuming several underlying assumptions including greater contribution to growth by private sector…Persistent fiscal deficits continue to be a risk in several economies, particularly India…

 

Sub-Saharan Africa

Subdued external environment, with poor weather and problems of governance and civil strife held real growth to 2.8 percent in 2002, down from 3.2 percent in 2001…External environment will provide only modest support for growth in 2003 with exports rising 2.9 percent; acceleration to 4.9 percent expected in 2004…Stronger growth for both energy and non-energy exporters in medium term as global recovery consolidates…In longer run, region will continue to face formidable obstacles to growth from low savings and investment rates, limited quality and quantity of infrastructure and human capital, and especially from HIV/AIDS…




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