In the absence of full risk-sharing mechanisms, macroeconomic fluctuations have an impact on people’s welfare, particularly that of the poor and disadvantaged. Volatility, recessions, and even crises are pervasive in developing countries, making it a challenge for economic policy to minimize their impact on consumption, human-capital development, and long-run growth. This requires an understanding of the nature of business cycles; that is, its causes, triggers, and amplification factors, on the one hand, and its distributional and aggregate effects, on the other.
Resource persons
Recent publications and working papers
The team’s research on business cycles covers a variety of issues, most of them of importance to developing countries. Some of them are the connection between volatility and long-run growth; the role of monetary policy in reducing cyclical fluctuations, particularly the choice of monetary regime and appropriate use of targets and policy instruments; the behavior of the real exchange rate and the corresponding policies to avoid macroeconomic disequilibria and balance-of-payment crises; the management of fiscal policy and public debt and their effects on employment and production; and the political economy of fiscal and monetary policy interactions.
Resource persons
Publications and Working Papers
Journal articles, book chapters, and other publications
This page lists recent scholarly publications by staff working in the area of Macroeconomics and Growth. Publications are organized by topic and appear in reverse chronological order.
The Policy Research Working Paper Series dissseminates findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. These are official working papers of the World Bank and are drawn from the World Bank's institutional archives. Each link opens a page with an abstract of the document and several download options. Choose the 'light-weight documents' option for easy download.
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