 Complete Report [1 mb] |
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| Foreword |
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| Executive Summary |
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| Chapter 1: Introduction |
 | While trade has helped expand the global economy, the gains have been uneven. |
| The Bank has contributed to trade both intellectually and financially, stressing its potential contribution to economic development. |
| The evaluation assesses the effectiveness of Bank trade assistance between fiscal years 1987 and 2004. |
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| Chapter 2: Lessons from the Literature |
| Despite long-term benefits from trade, trade liberalization is often controversial. |
| The literature has extended the factors that help maximize the benefits from trade liberalization. |
| Design of trade reform, complementary policies, geography, and institutions matter to differing degrees in each country. |
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| Chapter 3: Inputs, Trends, and Evolution of World Bank Trade Assistance |
| Lending for trade varies but shows a secular decline. |
| Trade conditionality and trade lending have fallen. |
| Trade facilitation, largely customs, is most frequent area of support. |
| Trade economic and sector work is on the rise, and it is paying more attention to institutional and welfare issues. |
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| Chapter 4: Outcomes and Results |
| The trade portfolio performed as well as the rest of the Bank portfolio. |
| Trade adjustment loans were most likely to meet their objectives, while institutional-related investment lending was least likely to do so. |
| Nominal tariffs were significantly reduced and overall growth often improved. |
| But the export supply response has been uneven and diversification limited, particularly in Africa. |
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| Chapter 5: Trade Returns to the Agenda, 2001-04 |
| The Bank has increased its presence and work on trade issues following the failed Seattle trade meeting. |
| Research is of high quality and advocacy has raised the Bank’s profile. |
| The Bank is meeting its trade capacity building objectives unevenly, and more effort is needed to mainstream trade. |
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| Chapter 6: Conclusions and Recommendations |
| Bank strategies on trade have been largely relevant. |
| But strategies took too narrow a view on critical factors for trade to contribute to growth. |
| The institution was also initially slow to react to the changing global environment and to incorporate those issues in operations. |
| Research and (increasingly) advocacy have played important roles, externally. |
| But the greatest challenge remains at the country level, where greater coordination across sectors is required, as well as greater attention to poverty and distributional implications. |
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Appendixes: |
| Appendix A1: Timeline of Major Developments in International Trade, 1987-2005 |
| Appendix A2: Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation |
| Appendix B1: Trade and Development - The State of the Debate |
| Appendix B2: Lessons from Previous IEG Evaluations |
| Appendix C1: Defining Trade in the Bank Portfolio |
| Appendix C2: Portfolio Data for Trade-Related Projects |
| Appendix C3: Changes in the Focus of Trade Conditionality |
| Appendix C4: Implementation of Conditions |
| Appendix D1: Core and Non-core Trade Projects |
| Appendix D2: IEG Portfolio Ratings |
| Appendix D3: Trade-Related Investment Projects |
| Appendix D4: Probit Estimation of the Determinants of Project Outcomes |
| Appendix D5: Aggregate Economic Analysis |
| Appendix D6: Sources of Growth Decomposition |
| Appendix D7: Case Country Profiles |
| Appendix E1: Organizational Chart for International Trade Department |
| Appendix E2: Establishment of Trade Department |
| Appendix E3: World Bank Advocacy on Industrial Country Trade Policies |
| Appendix E4: Distribution of Trade Capacity Building Components, 2001-04 |
| Appendix E5: Geneva Survey Results |
| Appendix E6: Staff Survey Results |
| Appendix E7: Trade in Country Assistance Strategies |
| Appendix E8: Trade Note Series |
| Appendix F: World Bank Management Response |
| Appendix G: Chairman's Summary: Committee on Development Effectiveness (CODE) |
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| Endnotes |
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| References |
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