TV Interview And Press Briefing: Climate Change Beyond Kyoto

with
 Ian Johnson, Vice President, Sustainable Development, World Bank
 Robert Watson, Chief Scientist, World Bank

Q: Why do you think that climate change is becoming increasingly a development issue?

Ian Johnson: I think climate change has been always an issue of development but as we look at the future and projections of the future, in terms of climate change, it is very clear that it will affect developing countries the most, and will affect poor people within the developing countries the most.

Q: Some people fear that countries which depend on agriculture for their survival will suffer serious consequences because of climate change. Can you explain that?

Ian Johnson: The estimates under the IPCC which is the Inter-governmental Panel of Climate Change indicate that agriculture could be severely affected in many countries of the world, for example, in Argentina, the estimate suggests somewhere between 10% to 15% declining yields if no technical progress is made to restore those yields. In Sub-Saharan Africa, that goes up to 30% in some parts of Africa and Asia. Again, in the absence of making progress with new technologies to improve yield outputs and yield productivity.

Q: Developing countries feel that this is not a problem they have created. Rich countries created it and they should pay for it. How can an understanding be reached   between rich and poor countries?

Ian Johnson: We have to understand the historical context of climate change over the last 200 or 300 years. It has been the developed world that has caused the problem but as we look at the next 100 years or so, we will see the whole world being part of the problem. We’ll all be in this together. And we have to understand that there is a financing mechanism that helps transfer funding from developed countries to developing world which is the Global Environment Facility (GEF), and if we get the trading regime right, we should be able to encourage new and additional money to go from developed countries to developing countries along with technology, so maybe the threat to all of us represents an opportunity.

Q: Do you think that with proper technology development, based on the ingenuity of entrepreneurs, the problem could be solved, or is it necessary to have clear global enforcement mechanism?  Which of these alternatives is the right one?

Ian Johnson: I think we have to be cautious about seeking a single solution to a very complex problem. At the end of the day, I think it is going to be about a rules-based system, it is going to be about an incentive system and it is going to be about the marriage between development and technology change, development and climate change. We are going to deal not only with mitigation but with adaptation and increasingly, I think the issue of adaptation at the national level will become a major issue which will require funding.

Q: What does it mean that countries need to adapt, and specifically what is the challenge for developing countries?

Ian Johnson: It means that a country facing a different weather pattern than in the past is subject to a new form of uncertainty. Dry areas get much drier, wetter areas get much wetter and there is greater unpredictability of rainfall. You have to plan your infrastructure accordingly. You cannot rely on 200 years of past data to prepare yourself for next 50 to 100 years so you have to think about how hydrological systems will change. You have to invest on Research and Development in agriculture. You are going to need to have more drought resistant crops, more saline resistant crops and paradoxically more water resistant crops because the areas prone to flooding will get wetter, the areas prone to drought will get drier. So we have to invest in research and development, we have to invest in better standards for our infrastructure, we have to invest in how we protect the low-lying areas of developing countries such as Bangladesh and others.

Q: You spoke about much needed investments. How will the Bank contribute to this effort?

Ian Johnson: I think that in the early phase, we got to do much more diagnostic work with our client countries to try to look what are the options, what are the impacts, where is it most likely to bite, where is it least likely to bite, and that will vary from country to country. In all cases I suspect that we will have to do a much better job on infrastructure and ensuring that it is climate aware or climate friendly - that is something that we can do in all countries. But in other countries that we will be looking at national research systems and agriculture, how they can get support to invest in the kinds of crops they will need in next 20 or 30 years. Additionally, I think we will be looking to countries in low-lying areas to design mechanisms to protect them against increasing floods.

Q: We have seen in the last 2-3 years hurricanes and floods in Central America, draughts in other parts of the world, and recently the tragic tsunamis in Asia. Is this a result of climate change?

Robert Watson: There is no question that the earth’s climate is changing. It has become warmer; we have seen changes in precipitation patterns, far more heavy precipitation leading to floods, some less lighter precipitation leading to droughts in some parts of the world, more heat waves in different parts of the world. So there is no question that we’re seeing more climate variability and more extreme weather events. However, the tsunamis are not caused by climate change at all. However, their negative impact can be amplified due to higher sea levels, motivated by global warming.  

Q: Do you think that there is a consensus about the fact that climate change is a human induced phenomenon?

Robert Watson: There is almost no doubt in the majority of the world’s climate scientists that we the humans are impacting on the earth’s climate. Most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is due to human activities.

Q: The Kyoto Protocol is now a reality. Do you think that more countries are going to join the agreement?

Robert Watson: I think it’s very important that Russia has ratified the Kyoto Protocol and will enforce it. I believe that will put more pressure across the world on those countries have not yet ratified the Protocol. But even more important is that we need to go beyond Kyoto and that we need to actually reduce greenhouse gases even more, if we truly want to limit climate change.

Q: Is that the responsibility only of rich countries?

Robert Watson: There is no doubt that the industrialized countries must take the lead, but eventually it will need developing countries like India and China to also reduce their emissions, but it will be essential that industrialized countries help them reduce the emissions in a cost-effective manner.