Official Bank Sites Related Publications Related Information October 11, 2006—In November 1970, a powerful cyclone swept into the Bay of Bengal in the wee hours of the morning. The sea rose some 12.5 feet (3.8 m) above normal high tide levels, and drowned 150,000 people in the low-lying Ganges River delta south of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Though this disaster occurred more than 35 years ago, the area, with its large population on low-lying land, remains one of the earth's most vulnerable places to storm surges, notes a new World Bank/Columbia University book, Natural Disaster Hotspots: Case Studies, released October 11. And many other areas of the world face severe human and economic losses from natural disasters such as cyclones, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and drought, says Margaret Arnold, a senior program officer in the Bank's Hazard Risk Management Team. Website Reveals Disaster Hotspots Would drought devastate Angola's population? What kind of impact would flooding have on China’s economy? These are the kinds of questions a new Natural Disasters Hotspotswebsite hosted by the World Bank can answer. The interactive, GIS-based website reveals the most vulnerable places on earth at a glance—the countries most prone to six major hazards: droughts, flooding, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides and volcanos. And it shows how natural disasters could affect a country’s population or economy. The Bank and its partners launched the website October 11 along with a new report, Natural Disaster Hotspots Case Studies, and a new program, Global Risk Identification Program (GRIP), designed to encourage countries and development institutions to plan ahead for natural disasters. A companion volume to Case Studies was released in 2005. The idea behind the Hotspots research, says World Bank disaster specialist Margaret Arnold, is to try to minimize the impact of natural disasters, especially in the developing world, and to save lives. “We see the big events that the media covers—the earthquakes and tsunamis—but there are smaller events every day that wipe out poor communities, and bury them even further into poverty. “So all we’re doing to help people, when we talk about sustainable development, is not going to happen if we don’t consider this as well.” The Hotspots website builds on the research for the books and incorporates hazard data from several sources, including original research on landslide risk. Part of the new GRIP program involves adding data for hazards for which data currently doesn’t go back very far (only 20 years, in the case of cyclones). The website maps mortality risk and economic loss risk, and lists disaster related projects by country. Population and GDP hazard exposure is calculated for 28 combinations of seven World Bank regions and four country wealth classes. Data contributors are partners in the ProVention Consortium including the Bank, the United Nations’ Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Reduction, and the Earth Institute at Columbia University. Arnold says the website represents the “first step” toward making disaster planning routine in World Bank planning and project design. Arnold co-edited Case Studies and co-authored a companion volume Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis released in 2005—a record year for natural disasters, with 360 disasters causing US$159 billion in damage, much of that from Hurricane Katrina in the United States. Global Risk Analysis found that disasters can wipe out hard-won development gains and accumulated wealth in developing countries. Case Studies takes a closer look at specific regions and risks: drought in Asia, landslides throughout the globe, storm surges in coastal areas, natural disaster risks in Sri Lanka, multihazard risks in Venezuela, and a pilot study on reducing the impact of flooding in Kenya. The books and a new Hotspots website offer scientific information on major natural hazards at a time when the Bank and its partners are ramping up efforts to help countries reduce risk and recover faster from disaster-related losses. Last month the Bank created a new partnership, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), designed to integrate disaster reduction strategies and sustainable development plans of countries believed to be at high risk for natural catastrophes. "Disasters are a development issue because they undo much of the work of development," observes Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard, Director of the Bank's Transport and Urban Department. "The hotspots study has given us for the first time the benchmarking of risks-natural risks—all over the globe in one methodology that allows a decision—maker to prioritize and to see where to put the money first, and where the issues are more urgent," she says. Data reveal that natural disasters can have devastating impacts—and that some countries have more than their fair share of risks. In fact, poor nations are often the most susceptible to natural disasters, and these impacts are likely to be fueled by climate change, rapid urbanization, and environmental degradation, says Arnold. "One of the surprising things that came out of the global analysis was just how many countries were prone to multiple hazards, but it only takes one to destroy an economy and a community," she says. While the Bank has a "large portfolio of recovery projects," few projects currently take a proactive approach to disasters, Arnold says. Yet much can be done to lessen the impact of cyclones, earthquakes and other hazards, such as improved building codes, land use planning, and disaster preparedness, she adds. Many of the nearly 20,000 people who died when a 7.6 magnitude earthquake struck the Indian province of Gujarat in January 2001 were killed by collapsing heavy tile roofs. Days later, when a 6.8 earthquake hit Seattle in the United States, "people just spilled their Starbucks…no one died," says Arnold. "When you see those differences, to me that just screams this is a basic development issue and we need to not consider these events as externalities—these terrible things that happen to our projects and our clients that we need to adjust to. This is the environment we live in, this is the planet we live on, and these are events that happen—and we can plan for them." Many Gujarat roofs had been built to withstand heavy monsoon rains, but were dangerous in an earthquake. "That's why you really need to understand all the hazards that a community is facing," says Arnold. "This is really related to the Bank's mission in terms of reducing poverty, particularly for poor people who have been pushed into marginal areas like flood plains, and who might not have the resources to rebuild after a disaster." |
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