Climate Studies Provide Early Warning Of Malaria Epidemics

Scientists have developed an early-warning system for the outbreak of malaria epidemics. They claim that the system, which is based on computer models of climate change, can predict outbreaks up to five months in advance, reports The Guardian (UK).

In Botswana the National Malaria Control Program has developed an early-warning system based on population vulnerability, rainfall, and health surveillance to predict and detect unusual changes in the seasonal pattern of disease. The risk of an epidemic in Botswana increases dramatically just after a season of good rainfall. Tim Palmer of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts in Reading used data on average rainfall from the past two decades to retrospectively predict the incidences of malaria in Botswana between 1982 and 2002. His method predicted all the epidemics. A separate study published last year showed that monitoring rainfall and sea surface temperature could predict the peak of a malaria season up to one month in advance. But the earlier warning provided by Palmer's work could give health workers more time to build up drug stocks or to target insecticides.

The Economist (UK) writes that prior early-detection mechanisms that look for the disease in sentinel sites on a weekly basis in more than 15 African countries, gave only a short time in which to respond to an outbreak. The new system, published this week in Nature, should help people in countries such as Botswana, South Africa and Swaziland, which now have the capacity to detect and respond to a malaria epidemic within two weeks. It should prove invaluable to those living in worse organized places such as Zimbabwe, which cannot respond so quickly.

The advanced warning comes at a price, however. The earlier the prediction is made, the less confidence the scientists have of its accuracy. Indeed, the system would appear to be slightly less accurate than other models. The gain in lead-time should nevertheless provide governments and non-governmental organizations with the opportunity to plan for a bad season.

The researchers are now focusing their efforts on making their model part of the routine epidemic-malaria control promoted by the World Health Organization in Zimbabwe and undertaken by the National Malaria Control Program in Botswana. In the coming years, they hope, the value of their early predictions should be measured in tens of thousands of lives.

Le Figaro (France) notes that Botswana, where malaria arises most frequently in March and April after the rainy season (which takes place from November to February) has not lost any time in implementing an early detection system. The country initiated an early detection system with a weekly notification of any incidences of malaria to the health ministry. The experimental system, which has already been implanted for two years, attracted the interest of its African neighbors, such as South Africa, Mozambique and Namibia where it could be on its way to being developed. Madeleine Thomson of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and a co-author of the study esteemed that what has been demonstrated in this project, and what makes it unique, is the speed in which the climate research has translated into concrete operations in Africa.

Disaster Convention Warned On Urbanization Risk

Natural disasters will continue affecting the world's poorest people until decision makers address factors including rapid urbanization and environmental destruction, a conference entitled, “Incentives for Reducing Risk” heard Thursday in Bangkok, reports Agence France Press.

European parliamentarian Anders Wijkman told an international convention on disaster prevention that while the global proportion of people living in poverty had fallen in recent decades, they continued to live in risk-prone areas. The earth's population had doubled in the past 40 years while people living in urban areas had increased five-fold, a trend that was continuing, Wijkman said. "Most of the new citizens in urban environments end up in various slums, more often than not areas most prone to the devastation caused by natural hazards such as earthquakes, flooding and tropical storms," he said. "By the year 2025, more than half the population in developing nations are expected to live in urban areas, and most will reside in areas at high risk."

The indiscriminate logging of forests, soil erosion and diking wetlands may well lead to future natural disasters because natural protection such as water retention and barriers against storms are removed, he said. "The irony is that while disasters are triggered by natural phenomena, a healthy natural environment is very often the best possible protection against storms, heavy rains or droughts turning into disasters. Decision makers, from politicians to policy-makers to members of humanitarian organizations, needed to be made aware that most disasters are rooted in development failures, he added.

In related news, The Financial Times reports that the United Nations warned Monday that more people will be effected by natural disasters, especially floods and drought, because of global warming, environmental degradation and rapid urbanization. According to the UN, nearly 92,000 people died last year in 360 disasters, with 73,000 deaths in the South Asian earthquake alone. In 2004, 305 disasters caused 244,500 deaths, most in the Indian Ocean tsunami. But Salvano Briceno, who heads the UN disaster reduction unit, said the true measure of disasters is their impact on development, with 157 million people affected last year.

World Bank Calls For Increased Use Of Renewable Energy

The World Bank Wednesday exhorted rich and poor countries to use more renewable energy sources, arguing it can mitigate the effects of climate change and energy supply risks, reports EFE.

Infrastructure Vice-President of the World Bank, Katherine Sierra, indicated that renewable energy is the type of energy that "has experienced the fastest growth in the world." She called on developing and developed countries to "pay more attention" to energy efficiency and renewable energy sources.

At the opening ceremony of the "The International Forum on Policies for Renewable Energies" held in the Mexican capital, Sierra indicated that developing nations did not take advantage of their renewable resources. According to the World Bank, poor countries currently use only 20 percent of their hydroelectric resources, compared to 80 percent in developed countries. In addition, there is ample potential for the development of wind and solar energy, which currently remains unused.

The Bank expert stated that governments should adopt policies that allow the private sector to become involved with the improved investment conditions in renewable energy projects. Sierra said  that the expansion of electricity in developing countries was being carried out “too slowly" and that it would take "more than 40 years to electrify Southern Asia and almost double that time to electrify Sub-Saharan Africa". Sierra expressed worries that carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) continue to increase, while developed countries are emitting ten times more than developing countries.

The World Bank official also emphasized that rich countries must "transfer technology and offer financing to exploit the potential of renewable resources in poor countries", something that could be "a good business." Arthouros Zervos, President of the World Council of Wind Energy, meanwhile argued that complex administrative processes were the primary factor that prevented developing renewable energy projects on a global scale.

In a related story, The Financial Times writes that persuading individuals and businesses to take the action necessary to tackle climate change caused by economic activity itself requires an economic argument. But how to put a price on the world’s climate and the catastrophes that may follow from global warming, asks.

Attempts to fill a policy vacuum as the expiry of the Kyoto protocol in 2012 looms are suddenly turning environmental economics into one of the hottest areas of the discipline. The challenge is to find policies that will make the most efficient use of scarce resources and provide a rational basis on which to build an international consensus to address climate change among politicians and business people.

The policy instruments available to governments traditionally include a carbon tax, limits on emissions and incentives to encourage the development of clean fuel technologies. Most economists favor market-based solutions as the most effective way to drive change in business practice and encourage the development of new technology. Dieter Helm, a fellow of economics at New College, Oxford believes that an alternative to subsidizing a particular technology, such as nuclear fuel, in order to provide low carbon generation is to auction long-term carbon contracts.

Under such a scheme, the government would auction carbon contracts for the supply of emission reductions over a long period – such as 20-30 years. The advantage for governments is that they are not obliged to evaluate industry claims about which technology is cheaper. Nor would they be obliged to sell a politically unpopular choice – such as nuclear technology – to a skeptical public. A similar scheme has been developed by the World Bank.

World Bank Head Has Passion For Helping Millions Stuck In Poverty

Paul Wolfowitz, the President of the World Bank, wants to show he cares. He says the Bank's mission is "helping poor people'', the emphasis being on people, not governments, writes The Daily Telegraph (UK).

At present the most urgent money is going to help poor countries suffering from bird flu "to get rid of their sick chickens''. But the most important area is Africa. "It is very short-sighted to say that Africa doesn't matter,'' Wolfowitz says. "There are issues such as health, migration and terrorism. Above all, it undercuts the moral legitimacy of the international free economy which on the whole is a great benefit to humanity. "There is amazing good news: 400 million people in Asia have escaped extreme poverty in the past 20 years. Then there is the bad news: 150 million to 300 million in sub-Saharan Africa have slipped into extreme poverty in the same period.''

Wolfowitz rejects the view that Africa is for ever stuck in poverty because, unlike Asia, it does not have a history of commerce. He has seen everything change in Asia: "The other day I was talking to the 45-year-old foreign editor of a newspaper and he had never heard the phrase 'oriental fatalism'. It's gone - look at Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, India.'' If you can work on the civil society, he thinks, you can produce economic growth. He cites 11 of 40 or so African countries with median real annual growth of five percent for 10 years, with Rwanda winning the prize at 10 percent (admittedly, 10 percent of almost nothing to start with).

The British daily writes that the World Bank is embroiled in a row that illustrates Africa's problems. Edward Clay, the former British high commissioner to Kenya, has written to Wolfowitz complaining that the Bank has shown "blind and offensive blundering'' in giving money to Kenya at a time of appalling corruption. Wolfowitz, surprisingly, does not object to Edward's tone: "He does not know me and he does not know our position.'' He feels that the Bank has not yet conveyed the true picture, which is that it is holding back five other programs for Kenya amounting to $215 million because of corruption worries. He says he would like to meet Edward and explain that. He takes the accusations about corruption in Kenya extremely seriously. The private sector is the "driver of growth'' and it is the private sector that is most smothered by corruption.

He is also surprisingly unfazed by the election victory for Hamas in Palestine. He sees it as a vote against the corruption of Fatah more than for extremist ideology. Wolfowitz says his aims in his career have been the same throughout, he says: a liberal-minded belief that if people can have democracy their lives will improve. He is looking for a fuller word than democracy, one that includes the richness of human institutions - "free societies'' is what we are talking about. His common theme is the duty of the West to prevent human suffering.

World Bank Urges Croatia To Maintain Reform Momentum

The World Bank plans to extend the second EUR150 million ($181 million) Programmatic Adjustment Loan (PAL) to Croatia by the middle of the year if the country moves fast enough in structural, institutional and cross-sectoring reforms, World Bank Country Director for Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania, Anand Seth said in an interview with SeeNews (Bulgaria).

Seth said the primary concerns about Croatia remained the high levels of its fiscal deficit and foreign debt. He said that fiscal consolidation could be achieved by implementing structural reforms, such as decreasing the subsidies to large loss-making state-owned enterprises. Seth further said that in its path to the next phase of the reforms, the Adriatic country would have to focus on social and healthcare expenditures, which both tend to be much higher in Croatia than in other benchmark countries and which put a heavy burden on the private sector.

As part of its analytical and advisory services, the World Bank is currently preparing its public finance review and plans to evaluate Croatia’s performance in March in order to decide whether to change its lending program to “high case” from “base case” one. Seth said that besides policy changes, which the Bank supported through its PAL programs, the country needed investments in some major sectors, such as science, education and technology in order to promote itself as a knowledge economy. That is why the Bank would continue the support in its ongoing science and technology, education and welfare projects, worth some $165 million, which it started last year. Currently, there are four more projects in an advanced stage of preparation, worth EUR84.5 million, thus overall commitments for active projects total $437 million.

Under its four-year Country Assistance Strategy, approved in December 2004, the World Bank plans to double its assistance to Croatia to $1.5 billion. Since 1993 the global lender has supported 29 projects in Croatia, worth $1.67 billion and has provided over 40 grants, worth $40.7 million.

Also In This Edition: Chad, World Bank Hold Talks In Paris; 'Mr. Development' To Serve As World Bank Global Coordinator; Also Reports; And Briefly Noted...

Chad, World Bank Hold Talks In Paris. The fact that N’Djamena and the World are talking is already a first step after the noise caused by Chadian decision to amend the agreement on the management of oil revenue, says a Radio France Internationale report.

During the three days no decision was made but both sides agreed to meet. The World Bank delegation said it was already a good sign. Ali Khadr, World Bank director for Africa, said the discussions were held in an atmosphere of mutual understanding. The minds were very relaxed. “This gave the chance to completely resume dialogue with Chadian authorities and I am happy about that. We talked extremely frankly. There were no taboo topics and I think that we managed on both sides to have better understanding of the concerns that each party has.”

RFI however notes that the Chadian delegation showed less optimism. Chadian finance minister Abbas Mahamat Touli said that there was a stalemate in the talks which he blamed on the World Bank's intransigence. Touli said that the discussions have not for now arrived at a tangible result. “We agreed in principle to meet again to continue discussing if ever this interruption will allow the two delegations to review things afresh and in particular the World Bank delegation if it can move forward on the point of convergence on which we managed to agree and in relation to which it immediately reneged on.

Reuters further adds Touli said on Thursday the World Bank went back on a pledge to Chad to release funds from a blocked bank account during talks this week to resolve a row about oil pipeline profits. In a telephone interview with the news agency, Tolli said he thought the Bank had given its word that the freeze on the Citibank account would be partly lifted so the country could use the money.

Upstream further reports that the World Bank is "not fixated on retaining the oil revenue management scheme in its present form forever" but disagrees with the government that the fiscal pressures straining the regime were due to rigidities in the revenue management system. "We think other aspects can explain this phenomenon - for example, the budget under which 80 percent of revenue was earmarked for priority sector projects was getting out of control and revenue management capacity had become an issue," said the Bank. "By all means extend the scope of health, education and road projects, but we find it difficult to accept how this can include security or that such fundamental modifications can be permitted by decree." The World Bank is loath to set a precedent that might undermine its policy of trying to tackle corruption and alleviate poverty.

Gabonews (Gabon) writes that the President of the Chadian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Abass Ali Seitchi, speaking on behalf of Chadian economic operators Thursday evening, said the current crisis has had several effects, “a shrinking of business opportunities in all sectors of activity, an accumulation of payment arrears at the at State Treasury level, loss of credibility in the eyes of international financial partners and other investors.”

'Mr. Development' To Serve As World Bank Global Coordinator. A man called Japan's ''Mr. Development,'' who is known for his expertise in the field, is set to take up a key World Bank post in mid-February, working with finance ministers across the globe to tackle pressing issues such as the spread of avian influenza and energy efficiency, reports Kyodo News (Japan).

Kiyoshi Kodera will become the first Japanese to serve as executive secretary of the Development Committee, a joint ministerial panel of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund that addresses development issues. The job requires close coordination with World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz, IMF Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato and the panel's 24 members in setting the agenda for their biannual meetings, a forum that Kodera says is ''most effective'' in crafting development strategy, given the relatively large representation of regions including Africa and the Middle East.

World Bank officials say Kodera's communication skills and leadership quality -- as seen in his chairmanship of a World Bank-led donors' meeting for Tajikistan in Tokyo in 2001, which led to $430 million in aid to the nation for 2001-2002 -- would make him a good coordinator for the World Bank, the IMF and Development Committee members. His expertise in African affairs, stemming from his posting to Cote d'Ivoire in 1980-1982 as Japan's representative to the African Development Bank, would also be an advantage, they say.

''With the next meeting slated for April, my first job in Washington would be setting the timely agenda for the 24 finance or development ministers, and prepare for the event with member states,'' said Kodera, who will replace Interim Executive Secretary Zia Qureshi of Pakistan. Kodera thinks it will be a lot of work to help Development Committee Chairman Alberto Carrasquilla, who is also Colombia's finance minister, achieve a consensus among the various -- often conflicting -- stances of ministers expressing the views of their constituents.

Also Reports…The Economist writes that a new study from the World Bank entitled “From Disintegration to Reintegration: Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union in International Trade” poses some good questions about trade and economic growth in the post-communist world. The gains from what the study calls “trade facilitation” are huge. It gives the countries scores for their regulations, customs services and the efficiency of ports. The underlying message is that clean, competition-friendly countries do well. In short, it is reforms “behind the border” that count. Foreign trade is highly beneficial - but ultimately it is a symptom of success, not a cause.

            Liberation (France) reports on the World Bank study titled, “Not If, But When: Adapting to Natural Hazards in the Pacific Islands Region.” The journal writes that Pacific Island countries should plan ahead and act early to avert the impact of cyclones in the region.

La Tribune (France) notes that according to a joint International Finance Corporation/World Bank study entitled, “Trading on Time,” delaying exports hurts the economies of developing countries. According to the study, it takes 116 days to move an export container from the factory or farm in Bangui, Central African Republic, to the nearest port and to fulfill all the customs, administrative, and port requirements to load the cargo onto a ship. The study highlights the need to focus aid for trade in developing countries on improving trade facilitation.

Briefly Noted…Xinhua reports that the two-week old Liberian government on Thursday clarified reports of mass dismissal at Liberia’s finance ministry, saying civil servants that are classified under the merit system are to remain at their posts pending a screening exercise. Local media had widely circulated reports that the Liberian President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, nicknamed Iron Lady, had dismissed all employees at the ministry due to widespread corrupt practices there. But a release from the president's office said only those appointed by the National Transitional Government of Liberia to public service positions under the Accra Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) have been relieved of their duties.

BBC News writes a report on Kenya's gold and diamond corruption scandal, the infamous Goldenberg affair, has been handed over to President Mwai Kibaki. After taking power in 2003, he ordered the probe into how the previous government had paid out some $600m for fake gold and diamond exports. Kibaki, whose administration has also been accused of corruption, will decide whether to publish the report.

Agence France Presse writes that a group of Kenyan musicians announced Friday a weekend benefit concert to raise money for millions threatened by famine from a searing drought as the United States boosted its food aid. With the Kenyan government and UN agencies poised next week to raise the official number of those at risk in Kenya, the musicians said the concert would emulate the 1984 "Live Aid" concert for Ethiopian famine victims.

The Zambia Daily Mail notes that World Bank Vice President for the Africa region, Gobind Nankani said at a press briefing upon arrival at Lusaka International Airport, that Zambia was one of the few countries that had not just benefited from the HIPC completion point but also from the new multilateral debt reduction initiative which reduced Zambia's debt to $550 million. Nankani further said that Zambia's poverty reduction program was beginning to bear results with the country’s poverty rate falling by at least six points.

The Associated Press reports that faced with a deepening budget crisis since Hamas' election victory, the Palestinian Authority put off paying the January salaries of 137,000 government employees Thursday for at least two weeks as it struggles to find new sources of funding. The delay in salaries, which were due Thursday, could foreshadow a far more serious government breakdown, with foreign nations threatening to freeze aid to the Palestinian Authority if the Islamic militant group takes power without renouncing violence or recognizing Israel.

Reuters further notes that European Parliament deputies endorsed on Thursday the EU policy of continuing aid to the Palestinians provided a Hamas-led government commits itself to seeking peace with Israel and renounces violence. In their resolution, parliamentarians said future aid "will be dependent on the new government's clarification on denouncing violence and recognizing Israel", reflecting the stance taken by EU foreign ministers at a meeting on Monday.

The Associated Press notes that top international donors on Friday postponed a meeting with Tamil rebel leaders in northern Sri Lanka for fear it could have a detrimental effect on upcoming peace talks between the government and guerrillas. The Asian Development Bank, IMF and the World Bank said they consulted with both sides and agreed to reschedule the meeting -- to take place in the rebels' de-facto capital, Kilinochchi -- after the peace talks in Switzerland later this month.

Reuters writes that proposals for a long-awaited UN Human Rights Council call for 45 members and beefed up standards for any nation wanting a seat on the new body, according to a draft resolution circulated on Thursday. The aim of the 191-member General Assembly is to approve the document by Feb. 15 so that the new council, which will also sit in Geneva, is ready to take over from the commission that is to have its final session, beginning in mid-March. Still undecided is whether a candidate would be elected by a two-thirds or a simple majority. The United States and the Europeans wanted a two-thirds vote, which would make it easier for them to stop a nation from getting a seat in the 191-member General Assembly, dominated by developing countries.

Reuters further notes that the IMF should review exchange rate regimes with a more critical eye and be tougher on countries with unsustainable currency policies, US Treasury Undersecretary Tim Adams said on Thursday. Unveiling proposals on how the IMF can strengthen its policing of currencies, Adams called on the global lender to sharpen its approach to currency assessments and publish regular reports devoted to exchange rate developments.