Description: Scenario building and visioning is a process of describing plausible future conditions. A similar tool, forecasting, is also used to predict the future conditions but it is calculated based on historical data while scenarios are built by incorporating uncertainties and driving forces of change. DAC Guidelines and Reference Series Applying Strategic Environmental Assessment (OECD, 2006) gives an example how scenarios are used in the private sector for strategic actions (page 156). Scenario planning is an example of a number of tools developed within the private sector (see e.g. Shell International, 2000). It is used to evaluate future, long-term, business environments and develop strategies that serve the traditional business goals of survival, maintenance and growth in competitive markets. The intention is to develop strategies that are robust enough to be able to adapt the company to shocks and surprises in the business environment. It does this through a systematic process, usually engaging external stakeholders, to consider the nature and impact of uncertain futures and important drivers/influences on changes in technological, societal, environmental, economic, political, commercial, cultural, etc., environments. The goal of scenario planning is to assist strategic planners and policy analysts to make more resilient choices through understanding a wide range of possible futures and designing pathways to arrive at desired positions. Key stages in this process include:
1. Agree the wide range of issues to address.
2. Identify participants (lateral thinkers).
3. Workshops and interviews of a "brain storming" nature.
4. Identify uncertainties and drivers of change.
5. Develop matrices to describe possible combinations of critical uncertainties.
6. Elaborate scenarios for each of the above combinations - again through group discussion.
7. Describe requirements (PPPs) to move towards a preferred vision and constraints to be overcome in getting there.
Scenarios and visioning can be an analytical or participatory tool. Â
References:
  Eastern and Southern Africa:  Presentation on Municipal Development Programme/ City Strategic Planning: Principles and Practices (G. Matovu, 2002). It presents the principles and practices of city strategic planning, including a SWOT analysis and visioning.
 Global Business Network provides information on  scenario thinking, including Mapping Public and Private Scenario Planning: Lessons from regional projects (by J. Ogilvy and E. Smith, 2004) which discusses the differences and similarities in scenario planning for public versus private purposes and lessons learnt from regional scenario planning projects run by GBN throughout the 1990s.  Stockholm Environment Institute developed scenarios for China’s Energy and Carbon Emissions (summary report), global energy and greenhouse gas, among others.  UK: A Guide to Approaches and Methods (COSLA Convention of Scottish Local Authorities, 1998). This guide describes various approaches and methods for involving the public such as main uses, strengths and limitations, and costs. It also provides examples of use based on the purpose of public participation (page 9). Visioning is described on page 44.  World Bank Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) Sourcebook: Tools for Institutional, Political & Social Analysis (TIPS) Volume II Scenario Analysis.  Other web resources for scenario planning and scenario thinking:  See also  Resources for Public Participation & Participatory Tools.   Â
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