 To consolidate the gains under the completed National Agricultural Technology Project, the Government of India (GOI) and the World Bank agreed to undertake a new National Agricultural Innovation Project (NAIP). However, the forces affecting agriculture have grown in number and complexity—population growth, increasing incomes and shifting dietary patterns, technology, and national and international markets, and a natural resource base under threat—to name just a few. These forces create uncertainty for policymakers and practitioners, and the scenario assessment process was used to help define key decisions that need to be taken to ensure that India’s agricultural technology system is well prepared for the future.
This study illustrates the usefulness of scenario planning in supporting strategic planning for long-term agricultural research and development investments. It is divided in 2 parts: (1) a description of scenario planning theory and methodology and (2) an application of the methodology in the design of NAIP.
For more information on the Bank’s work on scenario planning in agricultural science and technology, you can contact Riikka Rajalahti and Eija Pehu in ARD.
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