Module 11 - Reducing Agricultural Vulnerability to Natural Hazards

The effective integration of risk reduction in strategies for agriculture and allied sectors depends on recognizing that strengthening the resilience of agricultural systems is a strategy for reducing livelihood risks. Resilient agricultural systems reduce the vulnerability of the poor to natural hazards, and there is an emerging need to mainstream risk management in agricultural systems, policies, and plans. There also is an acute need to develop a long-term risk mitigation strategy that includes the early detection of hydro-meteorological hazards and information delivery mechanisms to communities at all levels.

The Global Hazard Risk Scenario

According to a “natural disaster hotspots” study by the World Bank and Columbia University, nearly one-fourth of total land area with more than three-fourths of the world’s population is subject to a relatively high risk of mortality from one or more natural hazards. This vulnerability reflects the higher population densities of areas that have experienced relatively high mortality during the past two decades according to the Emergency Events Database (EMDAT).¹⁴ More than four-fifths of GDP is located in areas of relatively high risk of economic loss, subject to one or more hazards. This fact poses a quite considerable risk for the global development community. Data from recent major disasters reaffirm the accumulation of mortality and economic loss risks in developing economies, particularly the low and lower-middle income group of countries. During the last decade, disasters caused damage of an estimated US$69 billion per year on average. There is also substantive evidence that the impact of disasters has been exacerbated by such trends as climate change, rapid urbanization, and environmental degradation.

Vulnerability of Economic Growth to Natural Hazards

Hazard risks make economic growth projections vulnerable, and the occurrence of a disaster during the planning cycle can seriously retard development in general and negatively impact poverty outcomes in particular. A ProVention Consortium/IIASA study in modeling expected catastrophic losses in macroeconomic projections has demonstrated that natural disasters can make a difference in the economic development of poor countries (Freeman et al. 2002). While data on wage losses and increased unemployment in the organized sector due to disasters are known for such projections, this is not the case in developing countries, where the organized sector accounts for only a small fraction of the workforce, and the informal economy expands with a redundant workforce and causes sharp declines in wages. The diversion of development resources to meet post-disaster relief and recovery needs may also slow poverty alleviation programs. This dimension of disasters often is not captured in gross estimates, and thus the economic impact of disasters is always underestimated. By incorporating hazard risks in countries’ macroeconomic projections, effective policy options at the country level can be explored, and preventive and mitigation measures can be taken to make the economy more resilient.