Date: April 26-30, 2010 Time: 9:00 am - 5:00 pm Location: J-B1-065 Speakers: Olivier Cadot, Senior Trade Economist, PRMTR and Professor, University of Lausanne;
Vandana Chandra, Senior Economist, DECOS;
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Professor, University of Innsbruck;
Mark Dutz, Senior Economist, PRMED;
Alvaro Escribano, Professor, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid;
Edgardo Favaro, Lead Economist, PRMED;
Harry Patrinos, Lead Education Economist, HDNED;
Gallina Vincelette, Senior Economist, PRMED. Description: The course introduces several topics, including growth models, growth accounting, human capital, and returns on physical capital, convergence, and growth diagnostics. It also discusses questions regarding the effect of the current global financial crisis on the medium-term outlook for growth. The course presents methodological tools for the diagnosis of economic growth problems at the macro, and where applicable, at the micro and sectoral level, along with the theoretical background. Up-to-date country case studies and examples are used to analyze a real world situation to allow participants to understand the theory and methodology used to identify sources and constraints to growth. The objective of the course is to sharpen participants' knowledge and skills in growth analysis by providing a critical survey of current sources and methods in the field, hands-on applications and discussion of relevant topics. Target Audience: Bank Staff and Clients
Materials:
Day 1:
Growth Paradigms, Growth Models, and Growth Diagnostics: Edgardo Favaro Selected References: - Aghion, Philippe and Durlauf, Steven N. (2005). Handbook of Economic Growth. North-Holland: Amsterdam.
- Aghion, Philippe and Steven Durlauf (2007) “From Growth Theory to Policy Design” (mimeo)
- Blanchard O. and S. Fischer (1989) Lectures on Macroeconomics, The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts.
- Harberger, Arnold C. (1998) “A Vision of the Growth Process,” American Economic Review, 88(1): 1–32.
- Hausmann, Ricardo, Dani Rodrik, and Andrés Velasco (2005) “Growth Diagnostics”
- Mankiw, G., E. Phelps and P. Romer (1995) “Growth of Nations” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Volume 1995(1): 275-326.
- Romer, Paul M. (1986). “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,” The Journal of Political Economy, 94(5): 1002-1037.
- Romer, Paul M. (1994). “The origins of endogenous growth,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8: 3-22.
- Solow, Robert M. (1994) “Perspectives on Growth Theory,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 45–54.
Preparation of the case: Edgardo Favaro Growth Accounting: Gallina Vincelette Selected References: - Barro, R. (1998) “Notes on Growth Accounting,” Journal of Economic Growth, 4: 119–137
- Ghosh, S. and A. Kraay (2000) “Measuring Growth in Total Factor Productivity,” PREM Note No. 42, Economic Policy Unit, September.
- Abramovitz, M. (1956), "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870", American Economic Review, Vol. 46
- Bernanke, B. S., & Gürkaynak, R. S. (July 2001). Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weill Seriously. NBER Working Paper No. 8365, S. 1-54.
- Gollin, D. (April 2002). Getting Income Shares Right. The Journal of Political Economy , S. 458-474.
- Izyumov, A., & Vahaly, J. (2008). Old Capital vs. New Investment in Post-Soviet Economies: Conceptual Issues and Estimates. Comparative Economic Studies, 50 , pp. 79-110.
- Senhadji, A. (2000) “Sources of Economic Growth: An Extensive Growth Accounting Exercise” IMF Staff Papers, 47(1): 129–157
- Solow, R. (1957), "Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function", Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 39, pp. 312-20
Day 2: Growth and Exports I: Olivier Cadot - Trade, Industrial Policy, and Growth: What Do We Know? What Guidance For Country Work? - [Document]
- Watching More Than The Discovery Channel: Export Cycles and Diversification in Development - [Document]
Export diversification: Vandana Chandra and Israel Osorio - Economic Diversification and Growth in Developing Countires - [Toolkit]
- A Conceptual Framework for Export Diversification and Sustainable Growth - Part 1 [Document]
- A Conceptual Framework for Export Diversification and Sustainable Growth - Part 2 - [Document]
Selected References: - Collier, P. and J. Gunning (1999). “Explaining African Economic Performance,” Journal of Economic Literature, vol. XXXVII, pp. 62-111.
- Collier, Paul. 2002. Primary Commodity Dependence and Africa’s Future. The World Bank.
- *Hausmann, Ricardo, Jason Hwang, and Dani Rodrik. 2007. What you export matters. Journal of Economic Growth (U.S.) 12, No. 1:1-25.
- *Hausmann, Ricardo, and Bailey Klinger. (2006). Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space, CID Working Paper No. 128, August 2006.
- *Hidalgo, C. A., B. Klinger, A-L.Barabási,R.Hausmann. (2007). The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations, 27 JULY 2007 VOL 317 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org
- *Imbs, J. and R. Wacziarg. (2003) Stages of Diversification. American Economic Review, Vol. 93 (1), pp. 63-86.
- Lall, Sanjaya, John Weiss, and Jinkang Zhang. 2006. The "sophistication" of exports: a new trade measure. World Development (U.K.) 34, No. 2:222-37.
- Lederman, Daniel, William F. Maloney, and World Bank. 2007. Natural resources, neither curse nor destiny, Latin American Development Forum. Palo Alto, CA Washington, DC: Stanford Economics and Finance,World Bank.
- *Rodrik, D. (2006). “What’s So Special About China’s Exports,” NBER Working Paper Series, No. 11947.
- Schott, Peter K.. (2004). “Across-Product versus Within Product Specialization in International Trade,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2004.
- *Schott, Peter K..(2007). “The Relative Sophistication of Chinese Exports,” Yale School of Management & NBER, March 2007
- Wood, Adrian, Jörg Mayer, African Development in a Comparative Perspective (Project), and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. 2001. Africa's export structure in a comparative perspective. Cambridge Journal of Economics 25:369-394.
Applications: - Chandra, V. and Israel Osorio-Rodarte, (2009). Options for Income-Enhancing Diversification in Burkina Faso in Burkina Faso: Promoting Growth, Competitiveness and Diversification (CEM), Volume I, November 24, 2009, Report No. 51815-BF
- Boccardo. J. And Vandana Chandra, (2008). Diversification and Innovation Opportunities in Benin in DIVERSIFICATION Benin: Constraints to Growth and Potential for Diversification and Innovation, Country Economic Memorandum, June 17, 2008
- Chandra, V. and Israel Osorio-Rodarte, (2007). Options for Export Diversification and Faster Export Growth in Ghana, in GHANA: MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF ACCELERATED AND SHARED GROWTH (Country Economic Memorandum), Volume II. Background Papers, September 5, 2007
Day 3: Convergence: Jesus Crespo Cuaresma Selected References: - Barro, Robert J. and Xavier Sala-i-Martin (1992) “Convergence,” in The Journal of Political Economy, 100(2): 223-251.
- Bernard, Andrew B. and Steven N. Durlauf. (1996) “Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis” The Journal of Econometrics, 71:161-173
- Durlauf, Steven N. (2003) “The Convergence Hypothesis After 10 Years,” University of Wisconsin at Madison (Manuscript)
- Galor, Oded (2006) “Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models,” The Economic Journal, 106 (437):1056-1069.
- Mathunjwa, Jochonia S. and Jonathan R W Temple (2007) “Convergence behaviour in exogenous growth models,” Department of Economics, University of Bristol (Manuscript)
Measuring Rates of Return on Human Capital: Harry Patrinos - Measuring Rates of Return on Human Capital - [Document]
- Can Cost-Benefit Analysis Guide Education Policy in Developing Countries? - [Document]
- Returns to Investment in Education: A Further Update - [Document]
Physical Capital and the Investment-Growth Nexus: Gallina Vincelette - Estimating Rates of Return on Capital - [Document]
- Estimating the Rate of Return on Capital - Empirical Exercise - [Document]
Selected References: - Caselli, F., & Feyrer, J. (May 2007). The Marginal Product of Capital. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, S. 535-568.
- Harberger, A. C. (1972). On Estimating the Rate of Return to Capital in Colombia. Project Evaluation: Collected Papers, S. 132-156.
- Bernanke, B. S., & Gürkaynak, R. S. (July 2001). Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weill Seriously. NBER Working Paper No. 8365, S. 1-54.
- Gollin, D. (April 2002). Getting Income Shares Right. The Journal of Political Economy, S. 458-474.
- Bai, C.-e., Hsieh, C.-T., & Quian, Y. (2006). The Return to Capital in China. Brookings Paper on Economic Activity , S. 1-28.
- Barro, R. J., & Lee, J. (September 2000). International Data on Educational Attainment: Update and Implications. NBER working paper No. 7911.
- Blades, D. (1998). Measuring depreciation. paper presented at the second meeting of the Camberra Group on Capital Stock Statistics, Paris . OECD.
- Dey-Chowdhury, S. (September 2008). Perpetual Inventory Method. Economic & Labor Market Review , S. 48-52.
- Ferreira, A. L. (August 2008). On the Differences Between the Marginal Product of Capital Across Countries. University of Sao Paulo, Department of Economics, FEARP, Brasil.
- Izyumov, A., & Vahaly, J. (August 2007). New capital accumulation in transition economies: implications for capital-labor and capital-output ratios . Economic Change and Restructuring , S. 63-83.
- Kamps, C. (2004, April). New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries 1960-2001. IMF Working Paper , pp. 1-38.
- Meinen, G., Verbiest, P., & de Wolf, P.-P. (July 1998). Perpetual Inventory Method: Service Lives, Discard Patterns and Depreciation Methods. Statistics Netherlands, Department of National Accounts.
- Narodnoye Khozyaistvo SSSR, (1989). State committee for Statistics: Moscow .
- OECD. (2001). Measuring Capital: Measuring of Capital Stocks, Consumption of Fixed Capital and Capital Services. OECD.
- Pritchett, L. (2000, December). CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment Effort) Is Not Capital. Journal of Economic Growth , pp. 361-384.
- Sachs, J., & Warner, A. (1995). Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No 1 , pp. 1-118.
- Young, A. (August 1995). The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, S. 641-680
Day 4: Human capital as a constraint to growth: Jesus Crespo Cuaresma - Human Capital and Economic Growth - [Document]
- Demography, Human Capital and Cross-Country Income Differences - Empirical Exercise - [Document]
Selected References: - Benhabib, Jess and Mark M. Spiegel (2003) “Human Capital and Technology Diffusion,” FRBSF Working Paper #2003-02.
- Lutz, W., Crespo Cuaresma, J. and Sanderson, W. (2008) The Demography of Educational Attainment and Economic Growth. Science, 22, 319. 5866, pp. 1047 – 1048.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory, David Romer; David N. Weil (1992) “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2): 407-437.
- Bloom, D. and Finlay, J.E. (2008) Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia. PGDA Working Paper#41.2008.
- Bloom, D., Canning, D. and Fink, G. (2008) Population Aging and Economic Growth. PGDA Working Paper#41.2008.
- Cohen, J.E. (2008) Make secondary education universal. Nature, 456, pp. 572-573.
- Crespo Cuaresma J. and Lutz W. (2007) Human Capital, Age Structure and Economic Growth: Evidence from a New Dataset. IIASA Interim Report IR-07-011.
- de la Fuente, Angel and Rafael Doménech (2006) “Human Capital in Growth Regressions: How Much Difference does Data quality make?” Journal of the European Economic Association, 4(1):1–36
- Krueger, Alan B. and Mikael Lindahl (2001) “Education for Growth: Why and For Whom? The Journal of Economic Literature, 39(4): 1101-1136.
Innovation and adaptation: Mark Dutz - Innovation-based Inclusive Growth Strategies - [Document]
Cost of Reform and Analysis of Binding Constraints: Edgardo Favaro
Day 5:Group Presentations and Discussions on Sources and Constraints to Growth Evaluations |
RSS