Niger's per capita income and development indicators are among the worst in the world with a per capita income of US$270 in 1993. Niger faces many of the problems encountered in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)—rapid population growth, sluggish modern sector growth, variable agricultural performance, and environmental degradation. Niger's high population growth 3.3 percent (average 2.8 percent for SSA) and recurrent drought make the problems particularly acute.
Poverty Profile The first World Bank poverty report on Niger entitled Niger Poverty Assessment: A Resilient People in a Harsh Environment was written with the intention of contributing to the government's formulation of an explicit action program against poverty and to increase sensitivity to the impact on the poor of policy and program development. The report presents a poverty profile that describes the socioeconomic characteristics of the poor based on data from the 1993 National Household Budget and Consumption Survey (Enquête nationale sur le budget et la consommation des ménages au Niger (ENBC)). In Niger, poverty is worse in rural areas than in urban areas, with stark differences: average urban incomes are double rural incomes. The poverty lines used in the poverty assessment were those set by the National Statistical Office of Niger (Direction de la statistique et de la comptabilité nationale (DSCN))—CFAF 75,000 for urban (UPL) and CFAF 50,000 for rural (RPL). According to these poverty lines, 63 percent of the Niger population (5.3 million) are poor, which includes 34 percent (2.8 million) who are extremely poor. Because of the population weighting, rural areas contribute 86 percent to total poverty. Of the rural population, 66 percent are poor and 36 are extremely poor. In urban areas 52 percent are poor and 26 percent are extremely poor. Niamey has the lowest proportion of poor with 42 percent, which constitutes about 4 percent of all poor.
The report finds that the well-being of the people in Niger is dependent upon many external factors—the world uranium market, rainfall, Nigeria's economy, and donor financing. This dependency brings extreme vulnerability. Agriculture, on which 80 percent of households depend, is extremely vulnerable to erratic and declining rainfall and periodic drought. Nearly 90 percent of rural household heads are farmer/pastoralists and 6 percent are small traders, hawkers, craftsmen, builders or transport workers.
Social indicators Niger's situation in education is catastrophic: a primary gross enrollment rate of 27 percent in 1993/94 places Niger among one of the five countries in the world where primary enrollment is below 30 percent. The level of education of the head of household shows a strong correlation with poverty. Not surprisingly, the incidence, depth, and severity of poverty are greater for less educated groups. Seventy percent of households whose head of household is illiterate are poor. This falls to 58 percent when the head of household has attended Koranic school, 56 percent when the head has attended primary school, and 29 when the head has attended secondary school. The levels of infant mortality and under-five mortality are extremely high in Niger: 123, and 318, respectively and the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests some worsening since 1980. These trends defy improvements that have been made in health care during the last decade and suggest that poverty has been getting worse. Although household survey data cannot be disaggregated within households to permit analysis by gender, other indicators suggest that women are disadvantaged in many ways and the burdens of poverty fall heavily upon them. Women are subject to the authority of men, are secluded and are confined by Muslim tradition: Female enrollment is a meager 21 percent (33 percent for males) and only 10 percent of women are literate compared with 20 percent of men.
Incentive and Regulatory Framework The downward trend in per capita income since the end of the uranium boom has exacerbated poverty. Policy responses to the economic crisis may have worsened inequality and poverty. In January 1994, the government took decisive action to restore competitiveness and devalued their currency by 50 percent along with other CFA countries. To reinforce gains in competitiveness, accompanying measures were taken: - Limiting the increase in the wage bill to 10 percent
- Improving tax collection and combating fraud to raise revenues to 9 percent of GDP from 7.3 percent in 1993
- Limiting the deficit to 14.4 percent of GDP
- Simplifying external tariffs
Progress in these reforms was satisfactory and good rains boosted exports and real GDP growth reached 4 percent in 1994, yet the pattern of cuts in government expenditures in the face of the fiscal crisis was particularly disadvantageous to the poor. Profitability in the agricultural sector—on which nearly 80 percent of households depend—will depend on technological improvements for rainfed farming under Sahelian conditions, and appropriate price and fiscal policies that favor farmers. Stringent labor laws and a regulatory environment biased against the private sector have created a climate not conducive to private entrepreneurship. While some quantitative trade restrictions were eliminated and labor sector rigidities reduced, and monopolies in agricultural trade abolished, there was growing opposition to the reforms.
Public Expenditures As the Niger government continues in its efforts to institute a program of sound macroeconomic policy, one crucial measure is to reorient public spending toward the effective delivery of basic social services, especially in rural areas. Policy responses to date have actually worsened inequality and poverty because while the public wage bill was protected, recurrent expenditures (and investments) in health, education, agriculture, and infrastructure were cut, undermining service delivery.
Safety Nets Although there are strong, informal traditional social networks, the need for safety nets and social action programs to transfer income and deliver food aid is immense. While the Job Creation and Private Initiatives Support Program (Programme d'appui à l'ínitiative privée et à la création d'emploi (PAIPCE), the Public Works and Employment Project and the Special Development Program (PSD) all achieved some impact, the executing agency entitled Agence nigérienne de travaux d'intérêt public pour l'emploi (NIGETIP) was contracted to manage the funds and their use for urban infrastructure rehabilitation and provision. NIGETIP's performance has been excellent and has completed CFAF 15 billion in construction or rehabilitation works and CFAF 1 billion in training and other services. The NIGETIP program has also been successful in attaining its objective of creating jobs in urban areas through labor-intensive projects and rehabilitating urban infrastructure efficiently and cost-effectively.
Poverty Strategy The most effective component of a poverty reduction strategy in Niger is the implementation of sound economic policies that stimulate labor-intensive and sustainable growth. Such a program is being implemented that aims to guide policy actions to allow the economy to recover from external shocks. A successful adjustment program would move the economy to a higher growth path and improve living standards. The reforms aim: - to restructure the composition of output,
- to keep the economy open,
- to decrease monopolies,
- to enhance resource mobility,
- to reduce distortions that affect resource allocation,
- to increase government effectiveness,
- to improve public resource use and target the poor,
- to build human capital and infrastructure, and
- to enhance rural and urban.
The government's macroeconomic policy reforms aim to achieve a real GDP growth of 4.3 percent and reduce inflation from 7 to 3 percent. Two critical factors have been confirmed by the poverty assessment: - Growth in agriculture will be the motor of poverty reduction
- Population growth rate must be reduced.
Success in reducing poverty will depend on strong government commitment and a joint effort (front commun contre la pauvreté) made up of potential partners and interests groups that include: the government from central to local levels, unions, the private sector, communities and organizations of civil society, local and international NGOs, multinational and bilateral donors, and the development banks who together would form a powerful and resourceful coalition that could do much against poverty in Niger.
Statistical System The report highlights the importance of having a system for monitoring the impact of interventions on the poor over time in order to provide rapid feedback to policymakers and financiers on how well programs are reaching their intended beneficiaries. The objectives would be: - to monitor levels of poverty to evaluate overall progress;
- to analyze poverty by region (urban/rural), gender, income source, socioeconomic groups;
- to assess the poor's access to:
- education and health services, including family planning and nutrition
- targeted programs such as school feeding, food aid, and NIGETIP
- economic infrastructure such as credit, agriculture extension services, and
- to analyze the determinants of access to improve policy and program design and public resource allocation
These tasks could be done by an existing unit (for instance within the Service d'alerte précose (SAP) or by a new unit established for this purpose. |
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