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Can Future Shared Growth Diagnostics Help Governments Avoid Repeating Past Mistakes? Reflections from Uganda CEM

Sponsors: Thematic Group on Poverty Impact Analysis, Monitoring and Evaluation, & Africa PREM
Presenter: Dino L. Merotto, Senior Economist (AFTP2)
When: November 20, 12:30 - 2:00pm

Despite being a landlocked resource poor, low income African country, Uganda grew healthily for 2 decades and has reduced poverty in the face of worsening terms of trade. The country has the world’s most youthful population, which coupled with one of the highest fertility rates, means that it’s working population is set to more than double in the coming 15 years. Few countries in sub-Saharan Africa have implemented more structural reforms, have maintained macro economic stability for longer, or maintained positive per capita income growth for so long. Yet even so, Uganda’s politicians are becoming impatient with the pace of growth and poverty reduction. They want more, faster. How did the Bank respond?

This presentation will outline the results and in particular the approach taken by the Uganda Country Team to diagnosing past growth and the likely constraints to future growth in Uganda. In assessing past growth, the team reviewed growth accounting studies, analyzed trends in labor productivity and employment, and undertook an assessment of drivers of growth and productivity in agriculture. To assess likely constraints to growth, the team followed the thinking behind the Growth Diagnostic tool by Hausmann, Rodrik and Velasco. When considering growth paths into the future, the team used the MAMS model to simulate productivity gains in alternative sectors of the economy.

In this presentation Dino Merotto (Task Team Leader for the multi-sector CEM) will discuss the challenges of undertaking growth diagnostic work, and will reflect on “what next” for shared growth diagnostic work in Uganda, and perhaps elsewhere in the Bank.


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