Realistic, quantified development targets are key components of PRSPs, and their establishment is a significant challenge for policymakers. Development targets are intended to help governments focus their resources and hold them accountable for subsequent actions. To serve these purposes, targets must be SMART; that is, they must be Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound. Experience has shown that most targets developed in the current PRSPs and I-PRSPs fail in several of these dimensions. Most often they are overambitious; they are technically and fiscally unattainable, which defeats their role as effective incentives to action. One example is Tanzania, where some recent informal assessments suggest that the PRSP targets for lowering infant, child, and maternal mortality in this country are unachievable, while other targets—such as those for reducing income poverty, improving access to safe drinking water, and rehabilitating rural roads—will be attained only under the most optimistic assumptions. While this example is particularly striking, it is by no means unique. Similar examples have been reported in other countries. Targets are often also fiscally unattainable. For example, in many countries, the cost of reaching the targets set forward in the Poverty Reduction Strategies largely exceeds the amount of debt relief granted under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) agreement. This chapter presents some analytical techniques to help policymakers gauge the technical and fiscal feasibility of their targets. While each of the techniques discussed below has deficiencies, taken together they have proven very useful in providing a sense of realism to target setting. The chapter begins with a review of issues involved in target setting. It then presents three methods for assessing the technical viability of development targets, gradually moving from low data- and skill-intensive to more demanding tools. Next, the chapter discusses two broad sets of techniques for estimating the cost and fiscal feasibility of reaching specific targets, as well as a number of issues to be considered when gauging a country’s capacity to implement the related program. The chapter ends with some concluding remarks. PREVIOUS CHAPTER | NEXT CHAPTER
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