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PAPERS

Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict (PDF)
By Halvard Buhaug, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Ole Magnus Theisen

This paper examines a relationship between climate change and armed conflict by assessing the theories and evidence.  Three processes are identified as evidence that climate change could cause social instability and conflict by creating competition over dwindling resources: intensification of natural disasters, reduced agricultural output, and sea-level rise.  It is considered that the risk associated with these processes work through five complementary mechanisms: economic instability, political instability, social fragmentation, migration, and scapegoating.  The paper offers recommendations on future research and policy development.

Pro-poor Climate Change Adaptation in the Urban Centers of Low and Middle-Income Countries (PDF)
By Caroline Moser and David Satterthwaite with Jorgelina Hardoy, Sheridan Bartlett, Saleemul Huq, Mark Pelling, Hannah Reid, Aromar Revi and Cecilia Tacoli

The objective of the paper is to provide an overview of social development issues relating to climate change adaptation in urban areas of low and middle-income countries. This is intended to highlight the extent and ways in which poor populations are particularly vulnerable to climate change both as individuals but also in terms of their assets at household and community level. However a focus on asset vulnerability, while critically important – and indeed the primary focus of most work to date - is only half the story. To go beyond vulnerability and focus on strategies and solutions the paper introduces an asset-based climate change adaptation framework that is pro-poor in focus and identifies the role of assets in increasing the adaptive capacity of low-income households and communities to climate change.

The Role of Local Institutions in Adaptation to Climate Change  (PDF)
By Arun Agrawal

*This paper has been updated to reflect comments received during the workshop

This paper focuses on how rural institutions can help shape and enhance the adaptation practices of the rural poor in relation to climate change-induced risks and how external interventions can help strengthen the functioning of rural institutions relevant to adaptation. It presents a brief typology of rural institutions using the familiar distinction between public, civic, and private sectors, surveys some important recent work on adaptation, and then outlines an analytical framework through which to view the relationship between rural institutions, adaptation due to climate change, and livelihoods of the rural poor.  It applies this analytical framework to more than 300 cases of adaptation practices drawn from the UNFCCC’s coping strategies database, and the desired projects described by nearly 15 countries in their National Adaptation Programs of Action. The paper brings these points together to advance an initial set of arguments about how local rural institutions can serve as anchors to strengthen adaptation practices of the rural poor.

Climate Change, Human Vulnerability, and Social Risk Management (PDF)
By Rasmus Heltberg, Steen Lau Jorgensen, and Paul Bennett Siegel

This paper proposes and applies a social risk management and asset-based conceptual framework to help design interventions that can increase the capacity of society to manage climate risks with a view to reduce the vulnerability of households and maintain or increase the opportunities for development. This framework offers a unifying lens to examine the links between risks, adaptation, and vulnerability and is consistent with IPCC definitions of vulnerability and adaptation (see Box 1 for key terms and definitions).

We apply the framework to identify adaptation interventions at household, local, national, and international levels, and their linkages. In particular, we clarify how several social policy interventions are “no-regrets” contributions to equitable risk management and springboards for growth, and discuss the role of social protection and insurance instruments in this context. We also propose a research agenda designed to inform future climate adaptation policies.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Migration and Conflict (PDF)
By Clionadh Raleigh, Lisa Jordan and Idean Salehyan

Climate change is expected to bring about significant changes in migration patterns throughout the developing world.  It has been said that increases in the frequency and severity of chronic environmental hazards and sudden onset disasters will change the typical migration patterns of communities and countries, but large scale migration is not a likely response to chronic environmental hazards or sudden onset disasters.  Based on case studies of previous disasters, this paper proposes a new framework to further study environmental migration by developing prediction models of migration and conflict risk using climate inputs.

Climate Change and Agrarian Societies in Drylands (PDF)
By John Morton and Simon Anderson

This paper examines the current status of drylands and their inhabitants, identifies the likely climate change impacts on drylands, then asks what are the main socioeconomic
components of climate vulnerability, and what is and can be done to mitigate and to prepare.