In the wake of the severe global economic downturn, most developing countries are facing a sharp deceleration in FDI and exports, and a resulting fall in GDP growth. This slowdown is already reducing employment and earnings in several countries. Labor markets are expected to recover slowly and governments are requesting policy guidance in terms of how to mitigate job losses and accelerate job creation.
Under the umbrella of “jobswatch,” the World Bank is pursuing analytical work designed to monitor the labor market effects of the current financial crisis. This work can be organized around three themes:
- Documenting the effect of the crisis on labor markets around the world and identifying country characteristics associated with patterns of adjustment (including the use of statistical methods to impute missing labor market data for several countries);
- Identifying the types of workers that were hit hardest by the crisis; and
- Assessing countries' policy responses.
Regarding the latter, the ILO and the OECD have already made an important investment on a policy inventory covering approximately 50 countries, and is leading ongoing work to update this inventory. The Bank has joined the effort, expanding the geographic coverage of the inventory and its scope.
Under the umbrella of the "Global Jobs Pact," the ILO is carrying out analytical and policy work on a number of fronts: continuing with the policy inventory that served as the basis for the policy analysis requested by the G20 and presented at the Pittsburgh meeting; country, regional and sectoral studies of adjustment and labor market impact including on working conditions; assessments of country policy responses; and analysis of fiscal space for policy response including recovery measures and exit strategies.
The main objective of the workshop was for experts from both institutions to discuss preliminary results of their efforts in some of these areas and to better coordinate upcoming work by the two institutions on financial crisis-related issues.
Agenda & Presentations
Agenda (123kb pdf)
"Identifying Vulnerable Workers during the Financial Crisis" (330kb pdf)
by Yoon Cho and David Newhouse, World Bank
"What’s Happening in Low-data Countries? A Method for Imputing Changes in Labor Market Conditions from Macroeconomic Indicators" (425kb pdf)
by David Margolis, David Newhouse and Michael Weber, World Bank
"Aggregate Labor Market Impacts of the Financial Crisis in Selected Middle-income Countries" (1.4mb pdf)
based on preliminary results by Gaurav Khanna, David Newhouse and Pierella Paci, World Bank