The Social Protection & Labor Hub of the Human Development Network is pleased to have sponsored presentations by

Cesar Zucco
Princeton University

Kathy Lindert
The World Bank

Cash Transfers and Voting Behavior

The 2006 presidential elections in Brazil witnessed a dramatic shift on Lula's voting base away from the more developed regions of the country and into its poorest areas. This paper examines the extent to which this shift can be explained by Bolsa Família --- the government's massive conditional cash transfer program. --- using a combination of ecological inference techniques on aggregate electoral data, analysis of individual level survey data, and the estimation of simultaneous equation models that attempt to separate the effects of the program from those of improved economic performance, while accounting for the program’s indirect effect on economic growth at the municipal level. The author examines the merits of alternative research designs, show that estimates from the different techniques are within the same order of magnitude, and find that that even after controlling for economic conditions, the program has significant electoral effects.

Presentation: "Cash-transfers, Voting Behavior and the Economy: An Assessment of the Electoral Impacts of Bolsa Família" (384kb pdf) by Cesar Zucco

Bolsa Família in the Headlines

Conditional cash transfers have represented an important instrument for the Brazilian social policy at the federal level since 2001 (e.g., the Bolsa Escola, Bolsa Alimentação Programs). In 2003, the new government had consolidated four of main social programs into a flagship program, the Bolsa Família Program. The objectives of this study are to understand what is the coverage, content and “flavor” of the debate in the press regarding the evolution of conditional cash transfer programs in Brazil over time. The study seeks to understand the nature of this debate in the press at two levels: (a) the “macro level,” looking at overall coverage, visibility and tone of the media’s treatment of these programs; and (b) the “micro level,” examining the media’s treatment of “hot-button” topics related to the design and implementation of the programs (such as coverage, targeting, registry, payments, fraud and fraud control, conditionalities, and grant dependency and graduation). More than 6,000 articles from six newspapers (national and regional) were catalogued and analyzed by World Bank researchers to evaluate how these programs were treated by the press over a six year period (covering the pre-reform programs of Bolsa Escola, Bolsa Alimentação, Vale Gas, and Cartão Alimentação from 2001-03, and the Bolsa Família program from 2004-06).

Presentation: "Bolsa Família in the Spotlight of Public Opinion: Some Observations and Theories on the Political Economy of CCTs" (673kb pdf) by Kathy Lindert

About the Presenters

Cesar Zucco is currently a Lecturer in Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. His research has appeared in the Journal of Politics, Journal of
Latin American Studies, Latin American Research Review, Electoral Studies and in edited volumes.

Kathy Lindert is currently the Sector Manager of Social Protection department in the ECA region, and former Sector Leader at the Brazil Country Office.