MOTORIZATION, URBAN TRANSPORT DEMAND AND CITY DEVELOPMENT The patterns of spatial, population and economic growth of cities, the two-way interaction of these patterns with urban transport systems, and public policies for managing and shaping urban activities have been time and place variant. Traditional transport planning developed largely in parallel with post-WWII explosion of individual motorization in the U.S., in an already wealthy society going through a period of sustained economic growth. The initial policy response in the U.S., based on a predict-and-provide planning framework, was to accommodate the private car to the maximum possible, while retaining public transport modes for the dwindling market of the car-less, old and young. This approach was eventually modified to reflect environmental and other social concerns, but essentially remained focused on the private car and featuring extensive, low-density spatial growth. An entirely different strategic approach was taken in the socialist countries, opting for public transport as the primary urban mode, and developing cities accordingly. In both these cases, the common element has been the strength of institutions and the importance of public policies for the provision of infrastructure, the supply of services, and consequently the modal choices. In the developing world, motorization is a relatively recent phenomenon, and the ownership rates in cities rarely exceed 200 cars per 1,000 population. Even at these low levels, the weakness of institutions and policies meant that the responses either in the form of accommodating the car or favoring public transport modes have not been adequate, creating congestion and poor accessibility and mobility. With well-known exceptions like Curitiba in Brazil and Hong-Kong in China, neither urban nor state-based institutions in developing countries have been strong and/or funded enough to accommodate rapid rates of population and motorization growth, exacerbated by the presence of sharp income inequalities. In relative terms, the land use planning and regulation have been even weaker than transport planning and regulation. These problems have been at their most acute in mega-cities, and it is commonly the lowest-income groups whose accessibility, mobility, safety and security have suffered the most. This is so even in cities where population and spatial growth have been accompanied by economic growth, not to mention places where the processes of city growth and wealth generation have diverged. Since the early-to-mid-1990s, the attention of the transport profession has been on the transformation of ex-socialist cities in the former soviet union and Eastern Europe in response to newly introduced market processes and the rise of income inequality, both reflected in the rise of motorization and crises in the provision of public transport services. More recently, motorization waves have welled up in China and India, the most populous countries in the world, with initial conditions very different from those seen in the US or Europe. Urban transport in China, most notably, is making a transition from a bicycle-dominated pattern to a classic competition between cars and public transport modes against the background of the inherited “socialist” approach to land use planning. China appears to have opted for massive road building in tandem with improving street-based public transport services and construction rapid transit systems in larger cities. The motorization in India has so far been of a 2-wheeler variety, with negative impacts on both bus and car transport. The response in terms of road building and public transport development has been sporadic. Neither urban development planning nor transport planning institutions in Indian cities are up to this challenge, with the jurisdictional and financial relations between the federal, state and local governments being a major stumbling block. This may change given the new awareness that urban accessibility is on the critical path for both economic growth and the standard of living of both rich and poor. Back to Top
PUBLICATIONS TWU-42. Managing Motorization.
Christopher Willoughby, April 2000
Motorization is seen in a dual context of transport and land use markets. The paper reviews social costs and benefits of motorization, and responses to its rapid increase in various parts of the world. It is concluded that the introduction of time-and-place variant road pricing holds the main promise to rationalize the use of motor vehicles and generate funds for their maintenance and expansion. PRWP-2042. Determinants of Motorization and Road Provision.Gregory K. Ingram and Zhi Liu, January 1999.
Summary - Full Document (PDF, 137KB)
National and urban motor vehicle ownership increases at about the same rate as income, whereas road length increases with income mainly at the national level. So, urban congestion grows with income. Controlling vehicle fleet growth and use would require high taxes that increase faster than income¾or there could be congestion tolls. PRWP-2036. Vehicles, Roads, and Road Use: Alternative Empirical Specifications.
Gregory K. Ingram and Zhi Liu, December 1998.
Summary - Full Document (PDF, 169KB)
The vehicle to road ratio in urban areas is increasing with income at an alarmingly high rate. Economic growth appears to be producing urban gridlock and promoting low density urban development¾a phenomenon that deserves attention and analysis. PRWP-1842. Motorization and the Provision of Roads in Countries and Cities.
Gregory K. Ingram and Zhi Liu, November 1997.
Summary - Full Document (PDF, 161KB)
Using panel data from 50 countries and 35 urban areas (covering a wide range of country incomes), Ingram and Liu summarize trends in motorization and the provision of roads, and they examine the ratio of motor vehicles to roads in a production function framework at both national and urban levels. They find regularities very strong across countries and urban areas and over time. - TWU-23. Transport in the City of Tomorrow: The Transport Dialogue at Habitat II.
Kenneth M. Gwilliam, October 1996.
Summary - Full Document (PDF, 64KB) PRWP-1633. Essentials for Sustainable Urban Transport in Brazil's Largest Metropolitan Areas.
Jorge M. Rebelo, August 1996.
Summary - Full Document (PDF, 855KB)
Four pillars for sound development and long-term sustainability of the urban transport sector in large metropolitan areas.
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