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Oil Price Volatility Conference Agenda
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| Oil Price Volatility, Economic Impacts, and Financial Management: Risk-Management Experience, Best Practice, and Outlook
-Washington D.C.
March 10 - 11, 2008
Cosponsored by George Washington University and World Bank Institute |
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Speakers with the Adobe PDF icon (  ) next to their name indicate their presentation for that session is available for download. Right-click on the icon or speakers name and select "Save As" to save the presentation. |
March 10, 2008  | 8:00 - 8:30 am | Registration  | 8:30- 9:15am | Opening Session:      Dr. Steven Knapp, President of The George Washington University  Keynote Speaker:     Graeme Wheeler, Managing Director, The World Bank  Chair:    Alex Fleming, Manager, World Bank Institute | 9:15 - 10:45 am | Session 1: Implication of high and volatile oil prices for international capital flows and the global economy  |  · | The current market situation (economic and geopolitical factors) | |  · | Consequences of high and volatile oil prices, | |  · | Implications of rising giants /changing economic structure, and | |  · | Global external imbalances and current financial market turmoil |
   Keynote Speakers:   Moderator:      Danny M. Leipziger, Vice President, Poverty Reduction and
     Economic Management, The World Bank | 10:45 - 11:00 am | Coffee Break  |
11:00 am -12:30 pm | Session 2:
Looking into the future: Are High and Volatile Oil Prices Here to Stay?  |  · | Speculation vs. supply & demand as key drivers – which is most important? | |  · | What can be learned about the future from oil-price
    forecasts? And from derivative markets? | |  · | What can be learned about scenario analysis? | |  · | How reliable are these price forecasts –scenario analysis?
    - Can they provide a reliable basis for budget planning?
    - Link them to risk management |
Panelists:
 Moderator:      Alan Gelb, Acting Vice President, Development Economics,
     The World Bank | 12:30 - 2:00 pm | Luncheon at the World Bank
(MC C1 - East Dining Room, 1818 H Street, NW) Speaker: James Burkhard      Managing Director, Cambridge Energy Research Associates
    (CERA) | 2:00 - 3:30 pm | Session 3 :Â
What is to be done?: Coping with oil price riskÂ
     - Policy Roundtable  |  · |  Several policy options are available for risk management: fiscal vs. financial. | |  · | Fiscal burden /financial regulatory issues: the role of government | |  · | We will focus on solutions using financial instruments | |  · | The nuts and bolts of risk management via financial markets should be discussed; and case studies |
Panelists:Â
|  · | Hon. Atchana Waiquamdee, Vice Governor, Bank of Thailand (8.2 MB) | |  · | Mohamad Ikhsan, Vice Minister, Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Indonesia (2.3 MB) | |  · | Evgeny Gavrilenkov, Chief economist, Troika Dialog, Russia (2.9 MB) | |  · | Robert Bacon, Energy Sector Management Assistance Program, IFC and The World Bank (69 KB) |
  Moderator:
    Daniela Gressani, Vice President, Middle East andÂ
      North Africa Region, World Bank | 3:30 - 4:00 pm | Coffee Break |
4:00 - 5:30 pm | Session 4:
Financial Markets and Institutions for Risk Management     - Parallel Sessions (break out sessions) | Session 4a: Views From Exporting Countries and Private Sector Participants  ·    The role of Financial institutions, and markets ·        Representatives from emerging oil exporting countries such as PetroVietnam and Nigeria
Group facilitators: Arvind Gupta, Program Leader, World Bank Institute | Session 4b: Views from Importing Countries and Private Sector Participants  ·    The role of Financial institutions, and markets ·     Representatives from oil importing countries, such as SinoPec China.  Group facilitators: Yan Wang, task manager, World Bank Institute | 5:30 - 6:00pm | Reporting back to the plenary session
 Moderator: Shigeo Katsu, Vice President, Europe and Central Asia Region, The World Bank | 6:00 – 8:00pm | Reception | |  |  |  |
  March 11, 2008  | 8:30 - 10:00 am | Session 5: The new kings of finance: the rising influence ofSovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) and hedge funds
|  · | How are sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds shaping global capital markets: financial stability and risk management | |  · | Concerns about sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds: transparency, governance and accountability | |  · | A typology of SWFs: investment objectives, liabilities, investment horizon, and risk preferences | |  · | Managing petro-wealth: designing investment and spending policies |
  Panelists:  Moderator:      Kenneth Lay, Vice President, Treasury, World Bank | 10:00 - 10:30 am | Coffee Break  | 10:30 am -12:00 pm | Session 6a: Financial instruments available to manage risks:  Part I  |  · | Definition of a derivatives-based Risk Management (RM) Policy | |  · | Risk Management with derivatives o       Instruments and strategies: basics o       Oil derivatives markets o       Market analysis | |  · | Implementation of a derivatives-based Risk Management policy o       Implementation framework o       Lessons learned and best practice: European airlines o       Simulation of derivatives-based strategies |
 Panelists:  Moderator:     James Daniel, European Department, The IMF | 12:00 - 1:30 pm | Lunch at the World Bank MC building (MC C1 - East Dining Room, 1818 H Street, NW)     Keynote Speaker: Guy Caruso,     Administrator, EIA,  US Dept of Energy | 1:30 - 3:00 pm | Session 6b: Financial instruments available to manage risks:  Part II |  · | New instruments and financial engineering: futures / options, derivatives-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), and oil related bond etc o       The properties of each instruments o       Behaviors of each instruments under different market environment o       Prerequisite of establishing such markets o       Best practices and case studies |
  Panelists:
 Moderator:     Michel G. Maila, Vice President, Risk Management, International       Finance Corporation (IFC) |
3:00 - 3:35 pm | Coffee Break | 3:30 - 4:45 pm | Session 7: Views from market participants and regulators: Risk management practices, and Role of National Oil Companies |  · | Some user of oil are hedging oil price risks, others are not, why? | |  · | Case studies by key corporate strategist from the Airlines on their risk management strategies | |  · | Will the change in the role of international and national oil companies affect future production and oil market? How? |
 Panelists:  Moderator: Arvind Gupta,  Program Leader, Finance, WBI | 4:45 - 5:30 pm | Session 8: Closing and Take-Away Messages - High Level Policy Roundtable  |  · | Closing the loop: Coping with oil price volatility: from financial development issues to macro stability and growth |
  Moderator:     Pamela Cox, Vice President, Latin America and Caribbean Region,       The World Bank  Other panelists: |  · | Robert Weiner, George Washington University | |  · | Tom A. Fearnley, Norwegian Ministry of Finance | |  · | Marciel Grodzicki, Bank of Poland | |  · | Yan Wang, Task Manager and Senior Economist, WBI |
| Â | Conference Evaluation | Â | End of Conference |
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