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Taking stock : an update on Vietnam's recent economic developments


Details

Author: Dinh, Viet Tuan ; Kubota, Keiko ; Rama, Martin ; 
Document Date: 2008/06/06
Document Type: Working Paper
Report Number: 44161
Volume No: 1 of 1
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Abstract

Global macroeconomic conditions have deteriorated in Vietnam since the second half of 2007. In addition to a slowdown in industrial countries, there is considerable uncertainty in financial markets and a surge in the world prices of commodities. Rapid increases in the international prices of rice and oil are of particular concern for Vietnam. Export restrictions in the former case, and a freeze of the domestic price in the latter, have prevented a full transmission of these shocks to consumer prices. And a bumper harvest could help ease the pressure in the case of rice. But latent inflationary pressures will remain, adding to the social impact of higher prices in recent months. Vietnam should benefit from higher prices for food, and especially rice, as it is a net exporter. However, less than half of Vietnamese households are net sellers of food and an even lower share is a net seller of rice. Because of the complex distributional impacts of higher food prices, sweeping responses may not be appropriate. Actions that depress the price of rice may assist urban populations, but disadvantage more than half of poor households in the Red River delta. As for cash transfers, they require good targeting. But in Vietnam good targeting works best among the rural poor and ethnic minorities, which are not the losers in the current situation.
 
 

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